Strong System for Plains, Tropical Storm for Southeast

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Continued rain in the Southeast, increasing showers in the Plains, and continued dryness in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WARMTH, FEW SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

Some showers developed across southern and western Midwest this weekend, but many areas stayed dry or only saw light rain. Some isolated showers will be possible both west and east this week, but many areas are going to stay dry. A front in the west will likely move east with showers later this week, with some heavier rain potentially for the northwest. A system may form along that front early next week with some additional showers across more of the region. Overall rainfall potential is pretty light for most areas outside of the northwest, where it could be heavy. Temperatures remain warm, helping crops to dry down and mature where rain is lower in coverage and intensity. Increasing dryness and drought has not been favorable for the winter wheat crop that is just starting to be planted.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A few showers moved through the Central and Southern Plains this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A system to the north will send a front into the region on Wednesday, but it will be stalled out in the region through the end of the weekend. It could produce some areas of showers. A low-pressure center is likely to develop along it this weekend and produce more widespread precipitation, which may help with winter wheat establishment and any immature crops. But for those just starting to harvest or watching their crops mature, it could cause some delays.

STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A front brought a thin line of heavier rain in the eastern Dakotas on Friday with more scattered showers on Saturday and Sunday, but many areas stayed dry over the weekend. Temperatures were largely hot as well. A system will develop in the region on Tuesday and widespread showers and thunderstorms are going to be likely as the storm spins through the region or just north in the Canadian Prairies through Thursday, possibly producing some areas of heavy rain that could interrupt the last bits of the wheat harvest but could also reduce drought and favor immature corn and soybeans in the east.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN THE DELTA

Rain from the remnants of Francine remained in the Delta through the weekend, amounting to some heavy amounts and causing delays and potential quality issues for mature soybeans and cotton. Drought has likely been reduced in many areas, though. Any improvements on the Mississippi River have been limited and will be brief without significant precipitation farther upstream, especially in the Ohio Valley. Some showers continue Monday and possibly Tuesday, but then dry up for the rest of the week. The next chance for rain comes with a weak front moving through early next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some showers fell in the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A system will develop in the Northern Plains on Tuesday, which will move north into the region by Wednesday and stick around through Thursday. Widespread showers are forecast, and some areas will see heavy rain. Another system will likely move through Friday and Saturday with scattered showers and a stronger system and front may move through during the middle of next week. That could be followed by a significant burst of cooler air, though models disagree on that. Recent and continued rain will disrupt the harvest and drop quality for some wheat and canola that remains out in the fields. The rain will help with the ongoing drought, however.

CENTRAL BRAZIL STILL TOO DRY FOR START OF PLANTING SEASON

A front brought some heavier rain to Parana over the weekend, with lighter amounts in southern Brazil that end on Monday. Another burst of showers may move through Parana on Wednesday. A front moving up from Argentina will likely produce more showers later this week and weekend for southern Brazil, which is getting some needed rain as planting continues. But central Brazil continues to be extremely dry, in some of the worst drought to start off a season in decades. Wet season rainfall may be on track to start at the end of the month, but producers are going to have to wait for consistent rains to begin planting, which may be pushed back deeper into October. If that happens, that will put a crunch on the safrinha corn and cotton crops that will start to be planted in January and February.

LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA

It was dry in Argentina over the weekend, a common theme for the start of corn planting, which has been significantly delayed already. A front will move through on Thursday and could make for some significant rainfall, but mostly for areas in the east with already better soil moisture. Western areas are still very dry. More fronts are in line to move through this weekend and again next week, but the rainfall will need to be better for the western half of the country’s growing areas soon or further delays to corn planting will be likely and developing wheat will continue to suffer.

WET IN EASTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers continued over the eastern half of Europe over the weekend with a system stalling there. Heavy rain in some areas caused flooding, but most saw beneficial rainfall. The system will drift southwest into the Mediterranean early this week, continuing showers there in needed areas as winter wheat planting starts up. A new system may form in the west on Friday and continue with widespread showers moving eastward into next week. Rainfall would help to maintain or improve soil moisture but could delay winter wheat planting if heavy.

HOT AND DRY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Far western areas of the Black Sea region have seen meaningful rain over the last week while eastern Ukraine and western Russia in particular have been very dry as well as hot. A small system will be meandering in the Black Sea this week, but it will likely stay hot and dry in the region. We may see a big change to the pattern next week, but that is far out. Drought and heat are not making for very good conditions for winter wheat establishment, which has a very limited amount of time before frosts and freezes start to be a regular occurrence in October or early November.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA

Some showers scraped through far southeastern Australia over the weekend, but most areas stayed unfavorably dry. The state of Victoria is the only area likely to see rain this week and chances there are low as well. Additional rainfall is going to be needed with more of the crop reaching reproduction.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com