Strong System Moving Through Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Increasing showers in the Plains and continued dryness in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

WARMTH, FEW SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

Some isolated showers will be possible both west and east in the Midwest the next couple of days, but many areas are going to stay dry. A front in the west will likely move east with showers for western areas on Thursday. A system may form along that front with some additional showers across more of the region this weekend into next week. Overall rainfall potential is pretty light for most areas outside of the northwest, where it could be heavy. Temperatures remain warm, helping crops to dry down and mature where rain is lower in coverage and intensity. Increasing dryness and drought has not been favorable for the winter wheat crop that is just starting to be planted.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system to the north will send a front into the Central and Southern Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday, but it will be stalled out in the region through the end of the week. It could produce some areas of showers. A low-pressure center is likely to develop along it this weekend and produce more widespread precipitation, which may help with winter wheat establishment and any immature crops. But for those just starting to harvest or watching their crops mature, it could cause some delays.

STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers have been a regular occurrence in the Northern Plains since the weekend but have come in patches. A system is developing over the region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing more widespread rainfall to the region and potential for heavy rain to Montana. Another system may bring a few showers this weekend, but it should be drier for about a week before the next system moves through. Temperatures will be quite warm the next several days, but milder behind the system this weekend.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN, DRY AGAIN IN THE DELTA

Heavy rain over the last week has caused harvest delays and potential quality issues for mature soybeans and cotton in the Delta. Drought has likely been reduced in many areas, though. Any improvements on the Mississippi River have been limited and will be brief without significant precipitation farther upstream, especially in the Ohio Valley. The next significant chance for rain comes with a weak front moving through early next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system will develop in the Northern Plains on Tuesday, which will move north into the Canadian Prairies by Wednesday and stick around through Thursday. Widespread showers are forecast, and some areas will see heavy rain. Another system will likely move through Friday and Saturday with scattered showers and a stronger system and front may move through during the middle of next week. Recent and continued rain will disrupt the remaining harvest and drop quality for some wheat and canola. The rain will help with the ongoing drought, however.

CENTRAL BRAZIL STILL TOO DRY FOR START OF PLANTING SEASON

A front brought some heavier rain to Parana over the weekend, with lighter amounts in southern Brazil that ended on Monday. Another burst of showers may move through Parana on Wednesday. A front moving up from Argentina will likely produce more showers later this week and weekend for southern Brazil, which is getting some needed rain as planting continues. But central Brazil continues to be extremely dry, in some of the worst drought to start off a season in decades. Wet season rainfall may be on track to start at the end of the month, but producers are going to have to wait for consistent rains to begin planting, which may be pushed back deeper into October. If that happens, that will put a crunch on the safrinha corn and cotton crops that will start to be planted in January and February.

LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA

It was dry in Argentina over the weekend, a common theme for the start of corn planting, which has been significantly delayed already. A front will move through on Thursday and could make for some significant rainfall, but mostly for areas in the east with better soil moisture. Western areas are still very dry. More fronts are in line to move through this weekend and again next week, but the rainfall will need to be better for the western half of the country’s growing areas soon or further delays to corn planting will be likely and developing wheat will continue to suffer.

WET IN EUROPE

Scattered showers over the eastern half of Europe were heavy with a system stalling there over the weekend. Heavy rain in some areas caused flooding, but most saw beneficial rainfall. The system will drift southwest into the Mediterranean early this week, continuing showers there in needed areas as winter wheat planting starts up. A new system may form in the west on Friday and continue with widespread showers moving eastward into next week. Rainfall would help to maintain or improve soil moisture but could delay winter wheat planting if heavy.

HOT AND DRY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Far western areas have seen meaningful rain over the last week while eastern Ukraine and western Russia in particular have been very dry as well as hot. A small system will be meandering in the Black Sea this week, but it will likely stay hot and dry in the region. Drought and heat are not making for very good conditions for winter wheat establishment, which has a very limited amount of time before frosts and freezes start to be a regular occurrence in October or early November.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA

Some showers scraped through far southeastern Australia over the weekend, but most areas stayed unfavorably dry. The state of Victoria is the only area likely to see rain this week and chances there are low as well. Additional rainfall is going to be needed with more of the crop reaching reproduction.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com