Systems and Front in Plains Causing Rain

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Rain in the Plains and system moving through the Midwest next week, and continued dryness in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

RAIN COMING FOR MIDWEST NEXT WEEK

Some isolated showers will be possible in both the western and eastern Midwest Wednesday, but many areas are going to stay dry. A front in the Plains will likely move east with showers for western areas on Thursday and Friday. A system should form along that front with some additional showers across more of the region this weekend into next week. Some areas of heavy rain will be possible, most likely in the west. Temperatures remain warm, helping crops to dry down and mature where rain is lower in coverage and intensity. Increasing dryness and drought has not been favorable for the winter wheat crop that is just starting to be planted, but the coming rain may help.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system to the north brought a front into the Central and Southern Plains Tuesday night, which will be stalled out through the end of the week, producing some areas of showers. A low-pressure center is likely to develop along it this weekend and produce more widespread precipitation, which may help with winter wheat establishment and any immature crops. But for those just starting to harvest or watching their crops mature, it could cause some delays.

STRONG SYSTEM IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A system developed over the Northern Plains on Tuesday and continues Wednesday, bringing more widespread rainfall to the region and heavy rain and strong winds to Montana. Another system may bring a few showers this weekend, but it should be drier for about a week before the next system moves through later next week. Temperatures will be milder behind the system this weekend, but that is no longer forecast to last very long with temperatures rising again next week.

DRY AGAIN IN THE DELTA

Heavy rain last week has caused harvest delays and potential quality issues for mature soybeans and cotton in the Delta. Drought has likely been reduced in many areas, though. Any improvements on the Mississippi River have been limited and will be brief without significant precipitation farther upstream, especially in the Ohio Valley. The next significant chance for rain comes with a weak front moving through early next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system in the Northern Plains will move north into the Canadian Prairies Wednesday and stick around through Thursday. Widespread showers and some areas of heavy rain are occurring. Another system will likely move through Friday and Saturday with scattered showers and a stronger system and front may move through during the middle of next week. Recent and continued rain will disrupt the remaining harvest and drop quality for some wheat and canola. The rain will help with the ongoing drought, however.

CENTRAL BRAZIL STILL TOO DRY FOR START OF PLANTING SEASON

A front brought some heavier rain to Parana over the weekend, with lighter amounts in southern Brazil that ended on Monday. Another burst of showers is moving through Parana on Wednesday. A front moving up from Argentina will likely produce more showers later this week and weekend for southern Brazil, which is getting some needed rain as planting continues. But central Brazil continues to be extremely dry, in some of the worst drought to start off a season in decades. Wet season rainfall may be on track to start at the end of the month, but producers are going to have to wait for consistent rains to begin planting, which may be pushed back deeper into October. If that happens, that will put a crunch on the safrinha corn and cotton crops that will start to be planted in January and February.

LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA

Dry weather has been a common theme for the start of corn planting in Argentina, which has been significantly delayed already. A front will move through on Thursday and could make for some significant rainfall, but mostly for areas in the east with better soil moisture. Western areas are still very dry. More fronts are in line to move through this weekend and again next week, but the rainfall will need to be better for the western half of the country’s growing areas soon or further delays to corn planting will be likely and developing wheat will continue to suffer.

WET IN EUROPE

A system brought heavy rain to central and eastern Europe late last week and weekend which caused flooding in some areas, but most saw beneficial rainfall. The system is drifting into the Mediterranean where showers continue there in needed areas the next couple of days as winter wheat planting continues. A new system may form in the west on Friday and continue with widespread showers moving eastward into next week, followed quickly by a much stronger system for mid-late next week that could be a strong fall storm with widespread rainfall, strong winds, and a burst of cooler air. Rainfall would help to maintain or improve soil moisture but could delay winter wheat planting if heavy.

HOT AND DRY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Far western areas saw meaningful rain last week while eastern Ukraine and western Russia in particular have been very hot and dry. A small system in the Black Sea has brought limited showers northward this week, but it will likely stay hot and dry for most of the region. Drought and heat are not making for very good conditions for winter wheat establishment, which has a very limited amount of time before frosts and freezes start to be a regular occurrence in October or early November.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA

Some showers scraped through far southeastern Australia over the weekend, but most areas stayed unfavorably dry. The state of Victoria is the only area seeing rain this week and chances and amounts there are low. Additional rainfall is going to be needed with more of the crop reaching reproduction.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com