Uncertainties in the Rainfall for Next Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Recent dry weather in the U.S. but potential for some heavy rain next week, recent good rainfall across South America, but late soybean planting due to earlier dryness, and a drier stretch for Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST

A small system will move through the Midwest on Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and small pockets of heavier rain potential. Though some showers will fall, it should not be heavy enough to build soil moisture, reduce drought, or disrupt harvest for too many areas. A storm system moving in next week could bring some waves of showers to the region that could be more meaningful.

BIG STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Despite some showers earlier this week, soil moisture continues to be quite low with widespread drought in the Central and Southern Plains. Harvest conditions have been very good though. A pair of systems will move into the region next week with a much better chance for pulses of showers to move through the region that could be more substantial. Models are working out that potential, however.

LOOKING FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A small system moving through the Northern Plains on Thursday will bring some isolated showers, otherwise dry conditions continue as drought keeps building. There is potential for showers to develop with pulses of energy moving through next week, though models disagree on that potential. Some windy conditions at times could increase the fire risk as well.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS FORECAST TO STAY LOW

Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be low, causing restrictions on transportation. With very little precipitation forecast in the basin for the next week and questionable precipitation potential next week, restrictions could last a long time.

GOOD RAINFALL FOR MOST OF BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Producers have not been able to cover the gap from late planting of soybeans yet and they only have about a week left before the window closes. Rainfall has been good farther south as well, with much better progress on planting occurring there.

ARGENTINA GOING THROUGH DRIER STRETCH

An overall wetter pattern lately has reduced drought and brought moisture for filling wheat and corn establishment in Argentina. There is still drought out there though, even after a system brought through some good rain over the last couple of days. The pattern is turning drier, for a little more than a week. Based on the recent rainfall, a shorter dry stretch will not be all that harmful, but if it lasts longer than forecast, issues may start to arise again. Soybean planting will start in November and the dry stretch will not be favorable early on. More rainfall will be needed to continue reducing drought.

MORE RAIN FOR WESTERN EUROPE

It continues to be unfavorably wet in some areas in northwestern Europe and Italy. Another system will move into western areas with more unneeded showers for Friday into the weekend, though Spain will benefit from the rain that may continue there into next week. Eastern areas have been able to recover from a wet period a couple of weeks ago, but some areas would now like to see rain there for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA REGION STILL DRIER

In the Black Sea region, rainfall deficits are very large in the east and the window for winter wheat establishment has essentially closed with frosts and freezes becoming more likely from now on. Overall drier conditions are in the forecast for the next two weeks with several fronts moving through with very limited showers and larger drops in temperatures. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A front is moving through eastern Australia Thursday, but with very little precipitation forecast for agricultural areas. The same goes with another system this weekend where showers may be relegated to the Pacific Coast. Some areas are doing well while others are too dry, creating mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com