US Undergoing a Weather Pattern Change

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Quieter weather in the U.S. (but not for all locations), recent wet weather in western Europe, and heat and dryness in the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

UPPER LOW CONTINUING SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

A system continues to cross the Midwest Wednesday with more scattered showers in an active pattern that has left many areas very wet. An upper-level low that will park itself in the region may continue showers around the Great Lakes through the weekend, and a small system may move through early- to mid-next week, but amounts after Wednesday look to be light and scattered, allowing many areas to dry out for the remaining planting or replanting. Temperatures will also be cooler than normal by a couple of degrees. Soil moisture remains high in most areas for early growth.

ANOTHER ACTIVE FRONT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Recent precipitation has been more widespread throughout the Central and Southern Plains, going through some of the drought areas with good rainfall amounts. After a couple of dry days, a stalled front in the region will produce showers and thunderstorms on Friday with potential continuing into early next week as it drifts south. Though some areas of flooding have developed, and those left to plant may have some difficult conditions, the rainfall is good for early growth in most areas.

QUIEER PATTERN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Despite some isolated showers being possible at times, drier weather is expected for most areas of the Northern Plains through the middle of next week. The drier weather is preferred in some areas of the eastern Dakotas for the remaining planting and boosting crop conditions. Temperatures will generally be warm west and cool east, but not cold enough for frosts. The pattern gets more active again late next week.

MORE RAIN FORECAST FOR DELTA

Scattered showers and heavy rain that have been moving through the Delta recently continue Wednesday. Drier conditions should develop afterward, though a stalled front could produce more rainfall this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will trend mild to even a couple of degrees below normal, keeping stress low for developing crops.

DRIER PATTERN LIKELY DEVELOPING FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Isolated to scattered showers went through the Canadian Prairies over the last few days. Eastern areas may see showers continuing for another couple of days, but drier conditions are likely through the weekend. Recent showers may not have been enough to delay the rest of planting but may have been an annoyance for those doing work. Soil moisture is much improved and early growth should find mostly good conditions. Models disagree about the precipitation forecast for next week, but the storm track is likely to shift back into the region by the end of next week.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR BRAZIL

Dry conditions with increasing temperatures continue to be unfavorable for safrinha corn that is still immature in Brazil, but most of the crop is heading more toward maturity and early harvest has started. Southern areas are seeing flood waters recede and soils dry out. Some winter wheat planting may start up, but the damage to infrastructure and continued wet soils probably keep this slow.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ARGENTINA

Dry conditions in Argentina have continued to favor corn and soybean harvest, but not winter wheat planting and establishment. A couple of fronts could produce showers over southern areas later this week and weekend with more potential for next week, but generally look light and still unfavorable for wheat.

FRONT CONTINUES SHOWERS IN EUROPE

An upper-level low that brought showers to central Europe recently is drifting eastward, but a front will push through the continent and settle west-east from northern Spain to western Ukraine over the next few days, producing a zone which will see scattered showers continuing into next week. Some of these areas will welcome the rain while others will not. Heat south of the front may be stressful for those that are drier.

HOT AND MOSTLY DRY IN BLACK SEA

Hot and dry conditions continue to be a concern for both heading winter wheat and developing corn and sunflowers in the Black Sea region. A front will move into northwestern areas and stall this week, bringing favorable showers in those areas through next week. But most wheat areas will stay unfavorably hot and dry going through next week.

MORE FREQUENT FRONTS FOR AUSTRALIA

Precipitation has increased across Australia recently as more systems are moving through the country instead of south of it. A system is bringing some rainfall to eastern areas through Thursday. Another front looks like it’ll go through western areas Thursday and Friday with another over the weekend that is likely to get into eastern areas next week and more systems are lining up behind it. With the switch to La Nina continuing to develop, the prospect for rainfall should continue to increase over the next few months, very favorable for crop establishment and development with time.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com