Warm and Dry Conditions for US This Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Recent heavy rain in the Corn Belt and Southeast, potential for another tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico, and a weak start to the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

DRIER FOR MIDWEST AFTER HEAVY RAIN FROM HELENE

The remnants of Hurricane Helene brought strong winds and areas of heavy rain to areas surrounding the Ohio River late last week and weekend. That has helped to ease the drought situation, improved water levels into the Mississippi River system and moistened soils for winter wheat planting, but may have caused damage due to flooding and winds. Wet soils are putting the brakes on harvest for a bit as well. The remnants will get pushed eastward by a front on Tuesday that will not produce much precipitation. Limited showers may come through Thursday and Friday with another front and a third will go through this weekend. That one has the best chances to produce rainfall, but is not guaranteed to do so. Though fronts are moving through, they do not have access to much cool air, and temperatures should remain rather warm on most days, getting pushed back toward normal after a front goes through.

CONTINUED DRYNESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It was very warm and dry in the Central and Southern Plains this weekend, drying out topsoil after last week’s good rainfall that was helpful for recently planted wheat. Dry conditions are in the forecast for the next couple of weeks with no real chances for meaningful rain while temperatures remain very warm to hot. That is not a good combination for wheat, but it is for harvesting corn and soybeans.

DRY DESPITE SEVERAL FRONTS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

It was dry and very warm in the Northern Plains this weekend. A front moving through Monday is bringing temperatures briefly back to normal. Another front should go through this coming weekend. The fronts are not likely to have much precipitation with them, but they will bring breezy winds, which will dry out the corn and soybean crops, and hustle them toward maturity.

HELENE BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO NORTHERN DELTA

Hurricane Helene brought a ton of rain into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys, raising water levels on the Mississippi River and reducing drought for northern areas, but causing some flood concerns and potential damage. Helene’s remnants are drifting east and should not produce any more precipitation for the region. Dry conditions are forecasted, though we will be watching a potential tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico later this week that could bring some impacts to the region.

TIME TO CLEANUP FROM HURRICANE HELENE’S HEAVY RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST

Hurricane Helene caused horrific flooding in parts of the Southeast late last week, causing some damage to cotton in Georgia and some corn and soybean acres in the Carolinas, though the worst of it occurred in the southern Appalachians where whole towns were washed away by flooding. Helene’s remnants will finally get pushed eastward on Tuesday and the region will be much drier for the rest of the week. We will be watching a potential tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico later this week that could bring some impacts to the region, though.

SLOW START TO THE WET SEASON IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Wet season showers started in central Brazil over the weekend but have been very spotty. That is expected to continue for the next week. The late start of rain is causing a slow start to soybean planting, which will have a more significant impact for the coming safrinha corn and cotton crops for early 2025. Southern Brazil has had more opportunities to pick up good rainfall over recent weeks, which continues this week with another front moving through with good rainfall that dies out as it gets into central Brazil. Another of these fronts is forecast for early next week which may be more promising for rainfall in central Brazil later next week.

LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA, MORE HOPE NEXT WEEK

It was dry in Argentina yet again over the weekend, continuing the trend of dry conditions that has significantly delayed corn planting for western areas and caused some to abandon their winter wheat due to poor conditions and limited or no rainfall. Far southern and eastern areas have fared better, but most areas are still dry. A system moves through Monday and Tuesday but with spotty showers. A more promising system may move through this coming weekend into early next week, but more rain is going to be needed soon to stave off the significant late plantings and increase soil moisture for the limited crop that has already been planted.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EUROPE

A system continued widespread precipitation over eastern Europe this weekend. Another system is moving through northwestern areas early this week with decent rainfall before digging down into the Mediterranean midweek with better rainfall for areas there. More systems are lining to move through the continent for next week as well. Soil moisture is much improved, though some areas have dealt with wetness and flooding that has caused issues for winter wheat planting and corn harvesting.

CONTINUED DROUGHT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A front moved into western areas of the Black Sea region over the weekend as a system slipped into southeastern Europe. That brought some rain, but the system will move into the Black Sea, taking the showers with it. Eastern Ukraine and western Russia have been very dry for months and the systems moving through Europe are not bringing the needed rainfall to the region for winter wheat planting. Though temperatures have been and continue to be quite warm, the risk of frost will increase throughout October, giving a very limited window for getting rainfall into the region for winter wheat to grow roots before the stronger freezes move in.

NEEDED RAIN MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA

A system spread rainfall throughout much of Australia’s growing regions late last week and over the weekend. The rain was much needed due to recent dryness in a lot of the country. Another system will move through this week, though showers may not be all that widespread across the east later this week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com