Warm and Dry for Central Argentina Through Early Next Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Models are showing rain showers becoming more isolated across central Brazil over the next few days while warm and dry conditions remain likely for Argentina through early next week. Additionally, heavy rain showers remain possible in the south-central U.S. through early this weekend as soils across eastern Texas into the Southeast are already soaked from rainfall earlier this week. These are the weather factors driving the markets for Thursday.

SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON THE WAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST

Multiple rounds of precipitation have impacted eastern areas through the first half of this week. Additional rainfall is expected through Thursday before a brief period of mostly dry conditions returns Friday. The next round of precipitation will tag eastern areas later this weekend before mostly dry conditions return early next week. Above to well above normal temperatures are expected through the middle of next week and northern areas could see temperatures rise to 20-25 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Warm temperatures and rainfall will likely lead to a reduction in snowpack for many areas.

BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Above-normal temperatures will continue across the Central Plains through the middle of next week, but temperatures could trend slightly cooler across Texas through early next week. The warmer temperatures will likely reduce any snowpack in Kansas and Nebraska. Recent areas of heavy rainfall in eastern Texas have helped improve soil moisture in the region. The rainfall is also favorable for winter wheat. One more round of rain is possible by the end of this week and early this weekend before conditions dry out early next week.

SNOWPACK REDUCTION LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Mostly dry conditions will continue through the middle of next week as systems largely pass by to the south and east of the region. Above normal temperatures will also continue through the end of January which will lead to mild conditions for livestock. The warmer temperatures will likely reduce the snowpack through the next week as well.

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELTA

Several rounds of rain remain likely through this weekend, melting any snow. Heavy rain remains likely Thursday and some areas of flooding are possible in southern areas. Water levels along the Mississippi River will receive a boost and increase transportation for at least a little while. Temperatures will continue to be above normal throughout the rest of this week and by next week, well above normal temperatures are expected in northern areas. Drier conditions will finally return across the region by late this weekend into early next week.

SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

While showers have been a bit more widespread across central Brazil over the past few days, they may become more isolated through the second half of this week and into early next week as the widespread showers shift farther north. The more isolated showers may allow for harvest progress to continue but for soybeans that are still maturing, more rainfall would be beneficial. Any rain showers will also benefit soil moisture for safrinha corn planting which should start up shortly. Precipitation is trending to be below normal for central and southern Brazil next week as heavier rain showers stay in northern Brazil.

GROWING CONCERN OF STRESS ON SOYBEAN CROP IN ARGENTINA

An extended dry period will continue across the main growing areas through at least early next week as any notable precipitation will stay off to the west and south. Corn and soybean conditions are likely to fall toward the end of the month as soil moisture may deplete across some of the cropland. The next chance for any notable precipitation may return by the middle of next week.

SOUTHERN EUROPE REMAINING DRY

Precipitation has been limited across Spain and Italy for vegetative wheat this week as most of the precipitation has remained confined to northern Europe. The drier conditions will persist into early next week and the vegetative wheat could use more precipitation. Temperatures are expected to be above normal across much of the continent through next week.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA

Recent rains in the east have been favorable for developing cotton and sorghum. Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will make landfall in eastern Queensland on Thursday. Heavy rainfall may accompany the tropical cyclone and lead to areas of flooding in eastern and northern areas. Meanwhile, southern parts of Australia will continue to see scattered showers through Thursday before turning drier by the end of this week and into early next week.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.deutchman@dtn.com.