Watching Another Big Storm for Next Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Recent heavy precipitation and drought reduction in the Plains and Midwest, big storm potential for next week, and overall fair weather for now in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

BIG STORM FOR MIDWEST NEXT WEEK

A system continues to move through the Midwest on Thursday and has been producing scattered showers and areas of moderate to heavy rain, further helping the drought situation in some areas. A few showers may move through this weekend. A much larger storm will develop next week, perhaps in two pieces, and is likely to bring more widespread precipitation to the region as it slowly spins around for several days. The details are still being worked out in the models and there is a lot of uncertainty with regards to timing, amounts and type. Regardless, it should still help to reduce drought and boost soil moisture for winter wheat.

BIG STORM NEXT WEEK FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS

Recent rain and snow have significantly reduced drought and increased soil moisture across the Central and Southern Plains, though areas of Colorado and New Mexico are still buried in snow that will not be helpful for winter wheat. Temperatures continue to be above normal except for areas covered in snow. A much bigger system should move through next week, perhaps in more than one burst, and that may mean a lot more precipitation. Models are all over the board with its precipitation potential and type for the region, but still produce quite a bit. Temperatures are likely to take a dive after that system moves through.

BIG QUESTIONS FOR BIG STORM FOR NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

A system should produce a few showers in the Northern Plains this weekend. But a much bigger storm should develop next week with heavier and more widespread precipitation, including potential for heavy snow. Temperatures will generally stay above normal until that bigger storm moves in next week, with a large drop expected. Overall drought continues to increase, though some areas are worse than others. That could change if the system next week is indeed a big one in the region. There is a lot of model uncertainty for this region.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS BOOSTED BY RECENT RAINFALL, NEED MORE

Water levels on the Mississippi River have risen due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest. The system moving through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys is helping as well and more rain is needed to maintain or improve long-lasting improvements. A storm that moves through slowly next week will likely be helpful as well.

TIME BETWEEN SHOWERS IS GREATER IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in Central Brazil, being favorable for soybean establishment. Southern areas have been a bit drier lately and soil moisture may be falling. But another system will move through early next week that could mean better coverage and amounts. Overall conditions are still mostly favorable in the country.

MORE RAIN IN ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND

Systems are moving through Argentina with less frequency lately and may be concerning if they only bring scattered showers instead of widespread rain. A system will move through this weekend into early next week and some areas may be missed. Those that could see falling soil moisture and poorer conditions developing, but conditions are still mostly favorable. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season as well.

WIDESPREAD, HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR EUROPE NEXT WEEK

Dryness in eastern Europe has been decreasing soil moisture as winter wheat starts to go dormant from north to south. Southeastern areas are worse off than other areas. A long-lasting storm system will develop next week with more widespread waves of precipitation through much of the continent.

RAINFALL MAY BE PICKING UP IN AUSTRALIA

Very limited showers have been moving through Australia lately and soil moisture is falling. With harvest increasing for winter wheat and canola, that will continue to promote fieldwork. But cotton and sorghum need more rain. A few systems will move through over the next two weeks, with heavier showers in New South Wales and Queensland this weekend and in parts of Western Australia next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com