Watching Argentina For Dryness

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A brief shot of very cold air occurring amidst an overall warmer pattern here in the U.S. and some patchy rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving markets Tuesday.

BRIEF SHOT OF COLD, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FOR MIDWEST

A burst of cold air will get pushed through the Midwest briefly Wednesday and Thursday. That could be enough to produce some streaks of light snow and open up the lake-effect snow machine for a couple days again. But warmer air will spread back into the region over the weekend and so will a chance for rain showers. A couple of systems next week may bring a mix of rain and snow that could help with the ongoing drought situation.

LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Colder air briefly coming through the Central and Southern Plains on Monday produced some snow in the High Plains, but other areas are likely to remain dry. Another system could start to produce showers across the east on Friday but amounts do not look heavy. Some storm systems next week could bring in some better precipitation but they are not currently forecast to do so.

BRIEF ARCTIC BURST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A burst of colder air will move through the Dakotas Tuesday night through Thursday, but then quickly be replaced by warm air Friday that persists into next week. Light snow is likely to be around the region through the changing temperatures. Any storm systems that produce good precipitation amounts are forecast to avoid the region over the next 10 days, but with so many in the pipeline, that could change. Drought areas scattered throughout much of the region would enjoy a change in the forecast.

RAIN ONLY BRIEFLY HELPFUL ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Showers moved up the Mississippi River toward the Midwest on Sunday and that could give a brief bump to water levels on the river, but much more is needed. The gauge in Memphis fell below the low water threshold again and that will likely lead to some restrictions for transportation. The pattern may get a little more favorable and active across the basin this weekend and next week, but that is uncertain.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER IN BRAZIL

Rain went isolated over central Brazil this weekend, but a front moving up from Argentina brought heavier rain to the south that will restart showers again in central Brazil over the next couple of days. Another system will move through southern areas Friday and Saturday with more rain. Very few areas are showing signs of having weather issues either being too wet or too dry. Overall conditions are still favorable for flowering to filling soybeans and developing corn.

SOME DRYNESS CONCERNS IN SOUTHERN ARGENTINA

A front brought limited showers to Argentina last week but did hit some important spots. A system that moves through mid- to late-week will favor the west and north with rainfall, but some of the important areas will stay dry, unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans. Mild temperatures will keep water demand down through next week, but the country needs more rain. While issues are only spotty currently, we could see more trouble spots expanding with the pattern continuing to favor scattered or spotty showers instead of widespread heavy rain.

TOO WET IN NORTHWEST EUROPE

A massive low-pressure system is being torn apart across southern Europe, though some showers may linger throughout the week. Organized rainfall may return to portions of the continent this weekend and several systems look to continue the rainfall through most of the continent through the end of the year. Areas in the northwest where wheat is still active have found conditions that are too wet. Otherwise, the continued rainfall should help to boost soil moisture for areas that have been too dry. Parts of Spain and the northeast could use more rain, though.

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved through Australia over the weekend, especially in the east where conditions have been much improved for cotton and sorghum development. The remaining wheat and canola harvest has needed to dodge the rain and some spots may have seen too much rain that has caused delays and some small quality concerns. The country’s agricultural areas will be quieter this week, allowing wet areas to drain a bit.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com