Wet in US Through Next Week, Turning Colder

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — An active pattern for the Central U.S. with heavy rain and severe storms but an eventual turn colder for most areas, poor weather in Europe and the Black Sea, dryness in central Brazil, and heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK FOR MIDWEST

The pattern stays active in the Midwest and the gap between storms remains short as a system moves across the region Friday, one moves through this weekend and another settles into the region early next week which will move through in several bursts. Long-term rainfall deficits are being eroded in some areas, but wet field conditions are going to slow planting down quite a bit. Not all areas are getting heavy rain though and may find some gaps between rain to continue working. The moisture is likely to be needed for the summer, which should be beneficial overall even if it delays planting.

STORMS CONTINUE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

The pattern continues to be active with multiple storm systems moving through the Central and Southern Plains over the next week, keeping planting slower and aiding soil moisture in many areas, though flooding may still be a concern in areas with heavy rainfall. The southwest is not a favored location for getting much precipitation into the area, but possibly some widespread showers on Saturday with an off-chance of better precipitation later next week. Wheat conditions are likely to continue falling if significant rain does not come soon.

WET AND COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Some showers continue in the Northern Plains on Friday, which included a little snow in Montana on Thursday. After a short break, a much stronger system is forecast to move in on early Monday with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. Showers could stick around for several days as the system slowly pinwheels eastward later next week. The active and overall colder weather will make it difficult to get out into the field in some areas but help to ease the remaining drought and add soil moisture.

DELTA GETTING MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK

The Delta continues to be wet, but the gaps between rains have been longer than areas farther north and west. Even with all the rain, planting progress has been quick this spring. The gap between storms should be shorter next week as a front settles into the region and several disturbances move along it. That will likely slow down planting a bit.

COLD AND WET IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

An active and cold pattern continues to bring a couple more storm systems through the Canadian Prairies through the middle of next week, which may help bring additional moisture over the expansive drought, but slow planting progress and could contain some snow.

DEVASTATING FLOODING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Much of the safrinha corn growing areas in central Brazil will be dry for the foreseeable future, though far northern and southern areas may see some isolated showers at times. That means that it will also be hot, which will force corn to draw upon its limited subsoil moisture as the crop goes through the rest of pollination and grain-fill. Damage to the crop will become more apparent with time. Rio Grande do Sul, which is in the midst of corn and soybean harvest in the far south, is seeing fronts waffle around in the region that will keep them wet through next week. Rain here has been so heavy that it is causing devastating and historic flooding, with flood waters and mudslides causing damage to property and fields. The remaining harvest and planting of winter wheat will remain difficult.

ACTIVE SHOWERS, SOME FROST FOR ARGENTINA

A front will continue to waffle around northern Argentina through next week as disturbances move through the country. Those disturbances will bring occasional showers to southern areas but heavier rain farther north with the front. That will make corn and soybean harvest more difficult when the rain occurs. Cold air building behind the front led to frosts across the far south on Friday. Cold air moving back in next week may do the same and could be more expansive.

CONTINUED WETNESS IN WESTERN EUROPE

A system that had brought widespread rain to western Europe this week is moving across southern areas into the weekend. Another system goes through the continent this weekend into next week with more rain. France and the UK continue to be too wet, unfavorable for winter wheat and summer crop planting. Temperatures will be generally mild to warm, but a cold front dropping through eastern areas late next week may bring a round of frosts through.

LIMITED SHOWERS, POTENTIAL FROST FOR BLACK SEA

Isolated showers fell in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia over the last week, but most wheat areas have been unfavorably dry. A front that just moved into the region will bring some cold temperatures for a couple of days and a stronger one will move through next week. It might be cold enough for frost, but cooler temperatures would be beneficial for reducing moisture demand for dry soil. Neither of these fronts has much precipitation forecast with them as dryness continues to be an issue for eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A system brought some showers to western Australia over the last few days. Another system is making its way through eastern areas Friday and Saturday, which will bring some beneficial rain, but to a somewhat limited area, mostly in northern New South Wales. The same area will look for another system later next week. Wheat planting continues to increase and the hope for better soil moisture will grow as El Nino continues its march toward La Nina over the next couple of months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com