Wet Pattern Continues Through Next Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — An active pattern for the Central U.S. with heavy rain and severe storms, poor weather in Europe and the Black Sea, dryness in central Brazil and heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK FOR MIDWEST

The pattern stays active in the Midwest and the gap between storms remains short as another system moves across the region through Friday, one moves through this weekend, and another is eyeing the region for early next week that may come through in several bursts. Long-term rainfall deficits are being eroded quickly in some areas, but wet field conditions will slow planting down quite a bit. Not all areas are getting heavy rain and may find some gaps between thunderstorms to continue working. The moisture is likely to be needed for the summer, which should be beneficial overall even if it delays planting.

STORMS CONTINUE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

The pattern continues to be active with multiple storm systems moving through the Central and Southern Plains over the next ten days, keeping planting slower and aiding soil moisture in many areas. However, flooding may still be a concern in areas with heavy rainfall. The southwest is not in a favored location for getting much precipitation into the area, but possibly on Sunday with an off chance of better precipitation later next week. Wheat conditions will likely continue falling if significant rain does not come soon.

WET AND COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers are expected to move through the Northern Plains through Friday, which includes a little snow in Montana. After a very short break, a much stronger system is forecast to move in on Sunday or Monday with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. Showers could stick around for a few days. The active and overall colder weather will make it difficult to get out into the field in some areas but help to ease the remaining drought and add soil moisture.

DELTA SEEING SOME BREAKS IN ACTIVE PATTERN

The Delta region continues to be fairly wet, but the gaps between rains have been longer than areas farther north and west. Even with all the rain, planting progress has been quick this spring. Scattered showers will be moving through at times though, and slow down additional progress. The gap between storms may be shorter next week.

COLD AND WET IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

An active and cold pattern continues to bring multiple storm systems through the Canadian Prairies through the middle of next week, which may be helpful for bringing additional moisture over the expansive drought, but slow planting progress and could contain some snow.

HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Much of the safrinha corn growing areas in Brazil will be dry for the foreseeable future, though far northern and southern areas may see some isolated showers at times. That means that it will also be hot, which will force corn to draw upon its limited subsoil moisture as the crop goes through the rest of pollination and grain-fill. Damage to the crop will become more apparent with time. Rio Grande do Sul, which is in the midst of corn and soybean harvest in the far south, is seeing fronts waffle around in the region that will keep them wet through next week. Extremely heavy rain has been disrupting the remaining harvest and making planting of winter wheat very difficult, if not impossible.

ACTIVE SHOWERS, SOME FROST FOR ARGENTINA

A front will continue to waffle around northern Argentina through next week as disturbances move through the country. Those disturbances will bring occasional showers to southern areas but heavier rain farther north with the front. That will make corn and soybean harvest more difficult when rain occurs. Cold air will build behind the front this week and may lead to frosts on Friday. Cold air moving back next week may do the same.

CONTINUED WETNESS IN WESTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers continue in western Europe, which is bad news for the UK and France which continue to be too wet, but favorable for Spain. A system will transfer showers across the south over the next couple of days, but the break between storms is short. Another system goes through the continent this weekend into next week with more rain. Temperatures will be generally mild to warm, but a cold front dropping through eastern areas late next week may bring a round of frosts through.

LIMITED SHOWERS, POTENTIAL FROST FOR BLACK SEA

Isolated showers fell in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia over the last week, but most areas have been unfavorably dry. A front will move through today and Friday that will bring some cold temperatures and a stronger one will move through next week. It might be cold enough for frost, but cooler temperatures would be beneficial for reducing moisture demand for dry soil. Neither of these fronts has much precipitation forecast with them as dryness continues to be an issue for eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A system continues with showers over western Australia Thursday. A system should make its way through eastern areas Friday and Saturday, which would bring some beneficial rain, but to a somewhat limited area, mostly in northern New South Wales. Wheat planting continues to increase and the hope for better soil moisture will grow as El Nino continues its march toward La Nina over the next couple of months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com