Wet Season Starting in Central Brazil

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A largely dry forecast for most of the U.S. and the true start to the wet season rainfall in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

STRONG FRONT FOR THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

A front will move through the Midwest this weekend, bringing showers to the Great Lakes into early next week, as well as a burst of colder air that could linger for a few days before the warmth returns, especially in the east. Conditions are mostly favorable for harvest, but not for winter wheat establishment in some areas that missed out on Helene’s rainfall two weeks ago.

LARGELY DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warm and almost completely dry conditions continue across the Central and Southern Plains through most of next week, though a brief burst of colder air will move through early next week that could have a few isolated showers with it. Overall conditions are favorable for corn and soybean harvest, but poor for winter wheat establishment and they need rain. A system could move into the region late next week or weekend and models are trying to figure out if it will bring a burst of cooler and/or significant precipitation.

MOSTLY WARM AND DRY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Mostly warm and dry weather is forecast in the Northern Plains through most of next week, though a quick burst of cooler air will move through early next week. Conditions continue to be favorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest. A system could move through late next week and weekend and models are trying to figure out if it will bring a burst of cooler air or significant precipitation.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL

Largely dry weather continues in the Delta region for the next couple of weeks, favorable for harvest. But that is not the case for water levels on the Mississippi River, which had a very good boost due to Helene, but are forecast to drop low again next week, with a potential return to restrictive conditions for transportation.

SOUTHEAST DRY AFTER MILTON’S EXIT

A mostly dry forecast remains in place for the Southeast. Rain from Hurricane Milton clipped far southeastern Georgia, but amounts were not heavy. A front will move through on Monday and Tuesday and may bring some isolated showers but will also bring in a burst of colder air.

WET SEASON RAINS BEGIN IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

The late start to significant rain in central Brazil has caused a slow start to soybean planting, but the wet season truly starts today as a front moves in from the south. Though the front will leave this weekend, the showers are forecast to continue next week and thus starts the wet season rainfall that the region has been waiting for. This comes about two weeks late. If producers can’t make up the deficit in the next couple of weeks, the safrinha corn crop that will be planted in February may be planted late, which would expose it to more of the dry season in 2025. Southern Brazil has had much better weather for corn and soybean planting as well as for filling wheat.

SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH ARGENTINA

A system brought showers over northern Argentina earlier this week, which also included some of the driest areas in Cordoba. However, the drought continues and more rain is needed. Several chances will occur for the next couple of weeks. Another front will move through southern areas Friday, a system moves through early next week, and another comes through late next week. Showers are expected to come in streaks, but producers need this to be heavy, soaking rain to reduce the drought and increase corn planting. Soybean planting doesn’t begin until November, but there could be issues with that as well if drought is not significantly reduced over the next couple of weeks.

MORE SYSTEMS FOR EUROPE

A system continues to move eastward through Europe with showers through Friday. Rainfall in the northwest has been a hindrance to corn harvest and wheat planting, which continues there this week. Rainfall elsewhere has moistened soils for winter wheat planting and establishment. Additional waves of showers are likely to go through this weekend and next week, but they may not be as widespread as recent rainfall. The western half of the continent is favored for the heaviest rainfall, which may continue to be a hindrance.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION HOPING FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND

A system brought meaningful rain to western and central Ukraine over the weekend, but the system only produced isolated light showers for eastern Ukraine and western Russia and many areas saw nothing. Eastern areas have had a terrible go with hot and dry conditions for months. Systems from Europe have not been able to penetrate farther eastward with the rainfall just yet. There is some indication that rainfall will increase this weekend into next week, at least marginally, but that is starting to get awfully late for winter wheat establishment and the drought is intense. Though temperatures have been quite warm recently, the risk of frost will increase throughout the rest of the month, with a cooler shot moving into Russia this weekend and another penetrating next week. The window for planting with good growing conditions is quickly shutting down.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Light and spotty showers have been moving through Australia this week, though some areas in Queensland had more beneficial showers. Dryness has been an issue in parts of the growing regions this spring, especially in the southeast. Chances for rain may be a little better next week, mostly in the east.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com