Wet Weather, Delayed Planting Still an Issue

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A continued active pattern for the U.S. and Canada, with a more consistent storm track through the Corn Belt possible, wet weather in western Europe, continued dryness in the Black Sea, dryness in central Brazil, and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

ACTIVE STORM TRACK FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEST

The Midwest will be in the crosshairs of several storm systems through next week that will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. While each system may not bring a ton of rainfall on its own, when added together we should see pockets of heavy rain that will keep planting slower than normal in some areas. For those with seed in the ground, the consistent rains should be favorable, however.

MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Several systems will move through the Central and Southern Plains through next week. Chances for rain are better away from the southwest, but there is potential for at least some there. The scattered and sporadic nature to the showers with these systems should lead to further planting windows being open, though some areas getting hit multiple times may find some difficulty.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING ACTIVE, TOO

Several systems will move through the Northern Plains over the next week. Some areas of heavy rain are forecast, but others will see little or none. Planting windows should be open for most areas, but others may find some difficulty, especially those that saw heavy rain last week. Temperatures will waffle around as well, but trend cooler than normal starting this weekend and continue to be cool through next week.

STORM TRACK MAY SHIFT NORTH FOR DELTA NEXT WEEK

Recent heavy rain in the Delta has kept soil moist for newly planted crops, but made it more difficult for those that haven’t yet planted. However, the region has seen good planting progress in the face of the wetter conditions so far this spring. A couple of disturbances will still go through the region through Saturday, but models are starting to back off on precipitation chances in the region for next week. Some may still occur, however, especially north.

MORE SYSTEMS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The storm track is busy through the Canadian Prairies through next week, with a storm system wrapping up in the region that could mean some areas of heavy rain and planting delays, especially north. Temperatures will trend below normal starting Friday and likely continue through next week. That may mean some limited areas of snow this weekend.

TWO FRONTS CREATING MORE FLOODING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Another front reloads over Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil with heavy rain on Thursday and Friday, exacerbating the flooding there. The front will shift north into southern safrinha growing areas for the weekend where it may bring some limited, relieving rain. Central Brazil continues to be hot and dry though, and crop conditions continue to fall there. Another front will do the same in the middle of next week, but this one may get showers into more of the safrinha corn areas late next week. Those chances are low, but not zero, and any rainfall would be helpful for the filling crop.

WIDESPREAD FROSTS IN ARGENTINA

Cold and mostly dry conditions over Argentina continue through next week, though far northern areas will catch some rain at times. Overall, the potential for harvest progress continues to increase, though the colder conditions have been producing frosts, which isn’t welcome for late-developing crops or newly planted winter wheat.

STORM KEEPING WESTERN EUROPE WET

A system continues in western Europe for the rest of the week, keeping wetter conditions going for the UK and France. The system drifts eastward over the weekend and early next week with widespread rain. Another system may move in right behind it next week though, keeping western areas wet.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

A system in the Black Sea will keep showers in far southern Russia and southeastern Ukraine for the next couple of days, a helpful sign for some of the drier soils there. Colder temperatures have meant frost in central Russia and have been close in eastern Ukraine and southern Russia as well, which may have produced some damage. Temperatures will rise this weekend.

QUIETER WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Dry conditions are in place for most areas of Australia for the next week. While planting conditions have been pretty smooth, establishment weather hasn’t been all that great outside of New South Wales. The hope for better soil moisture will grow as El Nino fades and La Nina takes over in the next couple of months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com