Active Pattern Continues

General Overview: ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EAST: A cold front will move through the Northeast on Tuesday, bringing rain to coastal areas of New England and the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure will build in behind this system, leading to generally dry conditions for the remainder of the week. Some light rain may develop along the coastal regions as moisture from the Atlantic moves onshore. A more active pattern could return to the Eastern U.S. by early next week as high-pressure weakens.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Near normal temperatures across most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with slightly above normal temperatures (2-4°F) developing in parts of the Great Lakes region.

-Days 4-6: Warming trend with temperatures climbing to 4-8°F above normal across much of the region, particularly in the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. The warmest anomalies will spread eastward through this period.

-Days 7-10: Continued above normal temperatures (3-6°F) across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with the warmest anomalies gradually moderating by the end of the period.

CENTRAL: An active weather pattern will affect the Central US through the period. Rain and thunderstorms will develop across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest today and tomorrow, with a frontal boundary serving as the focus for precipitation. The potential exists for heavy rainfall in portions of Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa where rain and thunderstorms are forecast. Late this week, a low pressure system will organize over the Central Plains, bringing rain and thunderstorms to the region. As this system moves northeastward, precipitation will spread into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Some thunderstorm activity may become strong in parts of the Central Plains. For the weekend and beyond, a cold front will push through the region, bringing additional precipitation chances to the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region. Behind this front, drier conditions will develop across the Plains into early next week.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Above normal temperatures (4-8°F) across much of the Central Plains and Mississippi Valley, with the warmest anomalies in Iowa, Missouri, and eastern Kansas.

-Days 4-6: Significant warming with temperatures 6-12°F above normal across the Central Plains, Upper Midwest, and Mississippi Valley. The warmest anomalies will be centered over Nebraska, Iowa, and northern Illinois.

-Days 7-10: Continued above normal temperatures (3-6°F) gradually moderating by the end of the period, with the warmth shifting eastward.

WEST: A complex weather pattern will affect the Western US through the period. Multiple low pressure systems will bring precipitation to the region, with mixed precipitation types across the higher elevations. The Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest will see periods of rain and mountain snow. Late this week, a low pressure system will bring rain and higher elevation snow to the Northern Rockies and parts of the Intermountain West. This system will gradually move eastward, bringing precipitation to the Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. For the weekend, another system will affect the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, bringing additional precipitation chances. The Southwest will remain mostly dry throughout the period, with only isolated showers possible.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Below normal temperatures (4-8°F) across much of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and parts of California. The coolest anomalies will be in Montana, Idaho, and eastern Washington.

-Days 4-6: Continued below normal temperatures (3-6°F) across the West Coast and Intermountain West, with the coolest anomalies gradually moderating.

-Days 7-10: Near to slightly below normal temperatures (1-4°F) across the Western mountains and Great Basin, with temperatures gradually returning to near normal by the end of the period.

TROPICAL:
Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Lorenzo is currently located approximately 1245 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving northwest at 13 mph. Sustained winds are estimated at 50 kts. Lorenzo is expected to maintain it’s strength, with gradual intensification forecast in the near term. Lorenzo will gradually turn north and then northeast through the middle of this week, with a turn eastward forecast late in the week. No impacts to the U.S. are expected with TS Lorenzo.

Pacific Basin: A trough located roughly 200 miles S-SW of Guatemala is favored to develop later this week. Current development through 48 hours is low at 10% and medium through 7 days at 50%.