CB: U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops to 3Mo Low In September

VIENNA (DTN) – U.S. consumer confidence fell in September, with the index dropping by 3.6 points to 94.2 from a revised 97.8 in August, according to the Conference Board report released Tuesday morning.

The Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, slid by 1.3 points to 73.4, remaining below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the eight consecutive month.

The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, declined by 7.0 points to 125.4.

“Consumer confidence weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The present situation component registered its largest drop in a year. Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings. Expectations also weakened in September, but to a lesser extent. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions but optimism about future income increased, mitigating the overall decline in the Expectations Index.”

The average 12-month inflation expectations eased slightly to 5.8% in September, down from 6.1% in August and well below the April peak of 7%.

The share of consumers expecting a recession over the next 12 months was stable in September, but more consumers thought a recession had already started.