Cotton Blunted By Outside Markets

The cotton market is somewhat lower Thursday as the geopolitical markets of crude, gold, the Dow Jones, and the U.S. dollar are all racing off in various directions. Last night, President Trump laid out the size and scope of Epic Fury, concluding it will take more time to finish the job. Traders will assess Thursday’s export sales and shipments report, Friday’s CFTC data, and the jobs report from the Labor Department, all ahead of the Easter holiday.

USDA just released its weekly Export Sales and Shipments report with the following data: “Net sales of Upland totaling 371,500 RB for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 94 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (170,500 RB, including 3,300 RB switched from China and decreases of 4,900 RB), Turkey (59,400 RB, including decreases of 100RB), China (55,000 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), Pakistan (45,600 RB), and Bangladesh (9,200 RB), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (1,500 RB) and Honduras (300 RB). Net sales of 117,300 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Turkey (39,600 RB), Mexico (37,000 RB), Japan (32,100 RB), Thailand (3,800 RB), and Vietnam (3,500 RB). Exports of 356,700 RB were down 11 percent from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (104,100 RB), Pakistan (38,600 RB), Bangladesh (36,100 RB), Turkey (32,000 RB), and India (28,600 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 15,500 RB for 2025/2026 were down 50 percent from the previous week, but up 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (8,500 RB), India (3,500 RB), Peru (2,000 RB), Vietnam (500 RB), and Turkey (300 RB). Exports of 7,600 RB were down 3 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to India (3,200 RB), Pakistan (1,400 RB), Egypt (1,300 RB), China (500 RB), and Peru (300 RB).”

Friday, the CFTC will issue its Commitments of Traders report. At last count, the CFTC reported managed-money funds were ne- short some 33,000 positions, way below their record bearish peak of 81,000-plus contracts. The report will be issued at 3:30 p.m. EDT.    

Also Friday, the Labor Department will release its jobs numbers for March. For that jobs report, traders are heavily focused on a potential rebound in hiring, with forecasts aiming between 55,000 to 70,000 new non-farm jobs added. While February saw a surprise contraction, the market anticipates a slight stabilization with unemployment holding near 4.3%-4.4%

All U.S. markets will be closed this Friday for the Good Friday/Easter holiday.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 71.60 cents and 71,=.00 cents, with resistance around 73.60 cents and 74.00 cents. Thursday morning’s estimated volume is 28,124 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.