Cotton Celebrates Christmas!!

The cotton market is slightly higher Wednesday morning, albeit on low volume. Most traders have packed it in for the Christmas holiday, but will keep eyes on the situation. There was a bit of holiday cheer in Tuesday’s export sales data, and participants hope for even stronger numbers during 2026. 

For the Christmas holidays, the market will close early on Christmas Eve, then all of Christmas Day, and have a shortened session on Friday. In addition, President Trump has ordered that all executive departments and agencies of the U.S. federal government will be closed on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025, and Friday, Dec. 26, 2025. Consequently, USDA will be closed on Dec. 24, 25, and 26, and of course, the weekend.

The CFTC issued another catch-up Commitments of Traders late update Tuesday. This report covers the period of Dec. 16. Per that report, the managed-money funds were buyers of a mere 180 positions, reducing their net-short carry to 54,883 contracts. For context, at one time, the funds were net-short some 81,000 plus contracts.

Also as mentioned, USDA catch-up export sales report showed net sales of 304,689 bales for the current marketing year and net sales of 14,960 for 2026-27. The total was 319,649 bales. This was the largest sale since Nov. 6 and was only the second time a number came in above 300,000 bales this marketing year. Shipments were 134,371, the highest since Nov. 6. The top two buyers were Vietnam (125,000) and China (90,000). 

Again, worth noting was that third quarter GDP showed economic growth better than was expected. In fact, it was the fastest pace in two years, far exceeding industry estimates of 3%. The economy recorded a 3.8% growth rate in the second quarter. The quarter’s GDP growth is the highest seen since the third quarter of 2023, when the economy expanded by 4.7%.

Daily chart support for March cotton stands at 63.80 cents and 63.00 cents, with resistance hovering about 64.50 cents and 65.00 cents. Wednesday morning’s estimated opening volume is 4,810 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.