Cotton Off With Other Ag Markets

The cotton market was slightly lower today amid the release of an update of supply-demand tables. At noon EST, USDA issued its latest WASDE and essentially, the numbers were unfriendly to bearish.

From its own website:

“USSD detailed the November outlook for US cotton. Thus, 2025/26 U.S. cotton supply and demand shows higher production, exports and ending stocks compared to September, with no change to consumption and imports. The forecast for U.S. production raised almost 900,000 bales to 14.1 million, reflecting higher expected yields in most States and increasing the projected national average yield almost 7 percent to 919 pounds per harvested acre. The export forecast increased 200,000 bales to 12.2 million. The balance of the production increase flows to ending stocks, which are raised almost 20 percent to 4.3 million bales, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 30.9 percent. The projected season-average upland price for 2025/26 is lowered to 62 cents per pound. The 2025/26 outlook for world cotton supply and demand in November shows higher production, consumption, trade, and stocks compared to the September outlook. Global cotton production is forecast 2.4 million bales higher with increases of 1 million bales in China, about 900,000 bales in the United States, and 500,000 bales in Brazil. World trade raised 300,000 bales and consumption 50,000 bales. Beginning stocks are raised over 400,000 bales largely reflecting updated 2024/25 trade data for several countries. As a result of these changes, global ending stocks are raised from about 2.8 million bales to 75.9 million.”

December cotton will enter its delivery on Nov. 21. Thus, all traders, except those intending to participate in the notice process, will have to liquidate or roll forward in time.

The U.S. dollar is headed lower, as investors trimmed positions while waiting to assess a backlog of U.S. data following the government’s reopening. Traders had sold the Greenback despite higher yields and expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month receding. The move came alongside a selloff in U.S. equities and bonds, which spilled over into Asian markets on Friday.

For Friday, December 2025 ended at 62.49 cents, off 41 points, while March 2026 closed at 63.14 cents, minus 40 points. Friday’s estimated volume was 97,819 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com