Cotton Eases Up

The cotton market is finding a way to trade higher Monday morning despite its overall bearish trend. Traders may be squaring certain positions ahead of Monday’s December expiration, Tuesday’s WASDE, and the Fed’s ultimate interest rate action on Wednesday.

Last Friday, the CFTC issued a backlogged Commitments of Traders report, covering the time from Oct. 28. The data showed managed-money funds “bought in” some 7,100 positions, reducing their net-short carry to 74,053 contracts. Their record high was 81,343 contracts.

As mentioned, Monday marks the final end for the December 2025 contract. Its trading spanned a high of 82.32 cents from Jan. 30, 2023, to its recent contract price low of 60.79 cents from Nov. 17, 2025. During its delivery it saw 185 notices tendered.

Tuesday at noon EST, USDA will issue updated supply-demand tables via its December WASDE. Last release, the tabulators increased the U.S. 2025 crop some 900,000 bales, as well as reporting higher domestic and world carryouts.

The Federal Reserve will meet Tuesday and announce on Wednesday at 2 p.m. EST, any action to be taken on U.S. interest rates. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the odds for a cut have moved from an earlier 40% chance to the current 87% for a quarter-point reduction. 

Daily chart support for March cotton stands at 63.75 cents and 63.00 cents, with resistance hovering about 65.00 cents and 66.50 cents. Monday morning’s estimated opening volume is 8,008 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.