Cotton Gingerly Higher After Government Reopens

After Wednesday’s pounding into a new contract low settlements, the cotton market is gingerly higher Thursday morning. Traders are now preparing for Friday’s highly anticipated supply-demand update. In addition, with the U.S. government now reopened, traders are also waiting on other key information — such as exports and the CFTC data — to be issued.

For the November WASDE, the average trade expectation has U.S. cotton production at 13.52 million bales. That number would be higher than the 13.22 million reported in September. Exports are expected at 12.08 million versus 12.00 million, and ending stocks are expected at 3.76 million versus 3.60 million previously reported. World 2025-26 production is expected to come in at 117.91 million bales versus 117.68 million, world consumption at 118.12 million versus 118.83 million, and world ending stocks at 73.64 million versus the 73.14 million seen in September.

December cotton will enter its delivery on Nov. 21. Thus, all traders, except those intending to participate in the notice process, will have to liquidate or roll forward in time.

The U.S. dollar is somewhat lower Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a deal to end the government shutdown. With that, traders expect any forthcoming economic numbers will show a slowdown in the economy and jobs. Thus, the Federal Reserve may be compelled to lower interest rates at its December meeting. Thus, the dollar is down, but the precious metals are shooting up.

Daily chart support for March cotton stands at 64.40 cents and 63.75 cents, with resistance at 65.20 cents and 65.80 cents. This morning’s estimated volume is 12,398 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 890-7780.