Cotton Higher, Farmers Happy

The cotton market is higher Friday as the futures are ripping through old resistance levels. For some time now, the cotton market has been acting indifferent to its fundamental and technical surroundings, making the heavily net-short speculators nervous.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, along with U.S. Trade Representative Greer, will be meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris this weekend, as the two sides prepare for the big Trump/Xi meeting toward the end of March. The U.S. and China will try to settle certain trade differences and expectations between the two dominant economies.

USDA will issue its Planting Intentions Report on March 31. This will be the first official look at 2026 acres. The survey is conducted in the first two weeks of March.

Today at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders data. Last week, the managed-money funds net-sold some 7,500 positions, increasing their net-short carry to 73,973 contracts. For context their record bearish position stands at 81,358 contracts.

The Climate Prediction Center reported 88% of the U.S. cotton planted area is suffering some form of drought. We think that is a record level this early in the season.

Crude oil continues to trade nervously higher. Overnight, Europe’s Brent Oil remained near $100, while WTI zoomed to roughly $94. Three cargo ships were struck off the coast of Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, some 480 million barrels of oil are scheduled to be released from various strategic reserves to serve as something of an offset.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 67.00 cents and 66.45 cents, with resistance around 68.50 cents and 69.00. Friday morning’s estimated volume is 27,845 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.