Cotton Inches Up, Watching Weather and War

The cotton market is slightly higher Wednesday morning, as conflicting swirling news concerning the U.S./Iran War is keeping most markets hunkered down. News of a 15-point U.S. peace deal sent to Iran has crude oil sharply lower, while gold and the Dow Jones are sharply higher. There does seem to be some sort of climax building toward this weekend.

Thursday at 8:30 a.m., USDA will update its weekly export sales data. Last week’s business saw combined seasonal sales of 320,000 bales, with shipments at 273,000, off 26% weekly. 

USDA will issue its Planting Intentions Report on March 31. This will be the first official look at 2026 acres. The survey will be released at noon EDT.

This Friday, the CFTC will issue its Commitments of Traders report. At last count, the CFTC reported managed-money funds were net short some 40,000 positions, about one-half their record peak of 81,000-plus contracts. The report will be issued at 3:30 p.m. EDT.    

Dry growing conditions are a grave concern for 2026. As it currently stands, some 89% of the U.S. Cotton Belt lies in drought conditions. Those dry conditions are offering some price support as U.S. plantings are getting underway. Certain weather forecasting companies indicate some rain episodes could possibly emerge late March and early April for the Texas and environs. However, a general soaking seems unlikely any time soon.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 69.00 cents and 68.75 cents, with resistance around 70.60 cents and 71.20 cents. Wednesday morning’s estimated volume is 19,877 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.