Cotton Is Quiet

Coming into today’s session, March cotton is off 49 points this far this week. Growers are nearly done with harvest and are now deciding whether to sell or hold their 2025 efforts. Various government entities continue to release delayed and pent-up information, which likely is confusing more participants than helping.

Wednesday afternoon, the CFTC issued another catch-up Commitment of Traders data covering the Dec. 2 time-period. This time. the managed-money funds net bought 2,212 positions, thereby reducing their net-short carry to 59,787 contracts. For context, their record bearish position was 81,000-plus contracts.

USDA just issued another weekly export sales report covering the Nov. 27 time period. It showed net sales for the current season were 135,900 bales, with Vietnam the main buyer. For next year, sales were a mere 4500 bales, while weekly shipments were 122,100 bales.

Today’s long-awaited CPI Report (consumer inflation index), the first since the U.S. government’s shutdown ended, showed that the headline annual inflation rate was 2.7%. The 12-month rate for core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was 2.6%. Expectations called for the headline measure and core CPI to come in at 3.1% and 3%, respectively.

Daily chart support for March cotton stands at 63.10 cents and 62.50 cents, with resistance hovering about 64.10 cents and 64.65 cents. Thursday morning’s estimated opening volume is 6,362 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.