Cotton Lower at Month’s End

The cotton market, uninspired by Thursday’s U.S./China trade understanding, returned to focus on its immediate fundamentals Friday morning. Those aspects include the ongoing 2025 harvest, a strong U.S. dollar, a bearish technical trend, and the December contract’s approaching option expirations and delivery events. 

Farm Service Agency (FSA) operations remained largely paralyzed. The promised reopening of 2,100 FSA offices has not fully materialized and concerns about insufficient funding for Marketing Assistance Loans (MAL) have now emerged. No loans were processed Friday, leaving producers without any MAL activity for the entire month of October.

The U.S. government shutdown stands at day 30. This weekend, being the first of the month, could see disruption in various social support programs such as SNAP with its 45 million recipients. Thus, pressure is mounting on the Democrats to make the vote. Today, President Trump is asking the Senate to end its filibuster rule, so that a simple majority in that chamber can pass legislation.

The 6- to 10-day weather outlook (Nov. 5-9) calls for above-normal temperatures for Texas and somewhat normal temperatures for the Delta and the Southeast. Rain-wise, Texas looks to have much below-normal chances, while the Delta and the Southeast will see normal opportunities.

Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 64.25 cents and 63.75 cents, with resistance at 66.10 cents and 66.50 cents. Friday morning’s estimated volume is 10,181 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 890-7780.