Cotton Posts Fresh Lows

A weak and frail cotton market posted new life-of-contract lows overnight. The technical and fundamental pressures are obviously too heavy for the ICE futures to handle. The unresolved government shutdown, the unfolding U.S. harvest, and poor demand are certainly aiding and abetting the Great Bear. 

Crude oil is higher Wednesday, helped by a smaller-than-expected output hike from OPEC. The cartel announced last Sunday it would modestly increase production in November to 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) versus the touted 500,000 bpd.

The New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations found fewer households expect to be better off a year from now. As a wave of economic uncertainty takes hold, Americans are increasingly pessimistic about their financial futures.

Effective Oct. 14, 2025, the Trump administration will impose new port fees on vessels with links to China. These fees vary depending on the vessel’s ownership, construction, and type. Fee structure for Chinese-linked vessels Chinese-owned or operated vessels will be charged $50 per net ton. Chinese-built vessels will face higher fees running between $18 per net ton or $120 per container discharged. China has protested the action.

The government shutdown has entered day eight. Tuesday, the U.S. Senate, for the sixth time, failed to pass the House bill that would temporarily fund government operations through Nov. 21. It takes 60 votes to advance the legislation. With that the Trump administration reiterated its threat of mass government layoffs if the shutdown persists.

The 6- to 10-day weather outlook (Oct. 12-16) calls for above-normal temperatures for Texas and the Delta, but normal for the Southeast. Rain-wise, West Texas looks to have slightly normal chances, while the Delta and the Southeast show below normal chances. 

Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 64.00 cents and 63.50 cents, with resistance at 65.20 cents and 66.25 cents. Wednesday morning’s estimated volume is 8,120 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 890-7780.