Cotton Quietly Awaits Data

The cotton market is fractionally lower as traders are keeping one eye on the U.S./Iran situation and the other on Thursday’s export sales and April WASDE. Overnight, crude oil is pushing back toward $100 per barrel, as confusion reigns as to what the details of the ceasefire encompass.

USDA just issued its weekly export sales with the following numbers:

“Net sales of Upland totaling 319,600 RB for 2025/2026 were down 14 percent from the previous week, but up 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (132,500 RB, including decreases of 900 RB), Turkey (67,800 RB), Pakistan (36,000 RB), India (24,200 RB, including 400 RB switched from Sri Lanka), and Bangladesh (18,700 RB, including decreases of 200 RB), were offset by reductions for Switzerland (3,700 RB), Nicaragua (1,300 RB), and Sri Lanka (400 RB). Net sales of 14,100 RB for 2026/2027 primarily for Costa Rica (13,200 RB), Indonesia (9,300 RB), South Korea (6,500 RB), Bangladesh (5,300 RB), and Portugal (3,500 RB), were offset by reductions for Japan (25,000 RB). Exports of 342,700 RB were down 4 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (126,200 RB), China (39,000 RB), India (37,100 RB), Pakistan (32,900 RB), and Bangladesh (32,100 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 6,500 RB for 2025/2026 were down 58 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (2,900 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), India (1,400 RB), Thailand (900 RB), Bangladesh (500 RB), and Japan (400 RB). Exports of 10,600 RB were up 40 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to India (4,300 RB), Pakistan (2,800 RB), Costa Rica (1,300 RB), Peru (1,200 RB), and Bangladesh (500 RB).”  

For Thursday’s April supply-demand update, the average trade expectation has U.S. production at 13.83 million bales.  If realized, that number would be down slightly from 13.92 million bales in the March update. Exports are expected to come in around 11.99 million bales versus 12.00 million in March. Ending stocks are expected at 4.36 million versus 4.4 million in March. World production is expected at 120.66 million bales (range 119.56-121.00) versus 120.99 million in March. Consumption is expected at 118.64 million compared to the 118.58 million in March, and ending stocks are expected at 76.25 million versus the 76.39 million in March.

This Friday, traders will see a fresh readout of consumer prices via the April CPI. Despite the ceasefire, increased fuel prices will likely be slow to recede. Thus, inflation may see a bump in its numbers for the next few months. The report is out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Also on Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders data. Last week saw the managed-money funds had net bought some 21,000 positions, reducing their net-short carry to 12,266 contracts. 

Chart support for July cotton stands at 72.45 cents and 71.85 cents, with resistance around 74.50 cents and 75.00 cents. Thursday morning’s estimated volume is 24,945 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.