Cotton Starts New Month

The cotton market is slightly lower Monday morning as it initiates a new month of trading and is heading toward the end-of-the-quarter and the-end-of-the-year. Traders are weighing the potential of a weaker U.S. dollar, improving export sales, and a burdensome net-short position held by certain speculators. 

USDA issued a catch-up cotton export sales report last Friday. It showed net sales of 175,678 bales for 2025-26, and net sales of 26,840 for 2026-27. The total was 202,518. Shipments of 159,600 bales were the highest since last July. The 5-year average for that week was 129,000. The agency will release another report Monday, covering the week ended Oct. 23. As they stand, cumulative sales for 2025-26 have reached 4.75 million bales, down from 5.30 million at this time last year and below the 5-year average of 7.218 million and the lowest since 2015-16.

The spot December contract remains in delivery, with no notices issued Monday. Thus far, the total notices tendered stand at 173 contracts. Delivery runs through Dec. 7.  

The 6- to 10-day forecast (Dec. 6-Dec. 10) shows slightly above-normal temperatures for Texas and normal readings for the Delta and the Southeast. Rain-wise, Texas will see below-normal chances, while the lower Delta and Southeast are set to have just above-normal chances.     

Daily chart support for March cotton stands at 64.00 cents and 63.50 cents, with resistance at 65.00 cents and 65.40 cents. This morning’s estimated opening volume is 5,245 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.