Cotton Sustains Higher Move

The cotton market continues to stabilize and sustain better price levels. There have been a fair amount of producers selling to merchants when the spot price and the government price option payment (POP) collaborate together. 

As mentioned, Monday’s export sales report now has USDA caught up in its shutdown-delayed information. The next export sales report will be this Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EST. Sales are still running the lowest in 11 years, and have only reached 58% of USDA forecast’s versus a five-year average of 75% for this point in the marketing year. This drag suggests the agency could lower its forecast in the upcoming WASDE.

With that, this Monday USDA will issue its monthly supply-demand update. As implied U.S. exports could be reduced, but also the 2025 crop might see a small retraction. The report will be at noon EST.  Estimates will come later in the week.

The U.S. Supreme Court will rule this Friday regarding the legality of the Trump administration’s sweeping global tariffs. The challenge to Trump’s tariffs is among the most closely watched of the cases awaiting decisions by the top U.S. judicial body that could impact the global economy and marks a major test of presidential powers

The 6- to 10-day weather forecast calls for normal temperatures for the Southeast, the Delta, and central Texas. The Texas Panhandle looks to experience above-normal temps. Rainwise, the entire U.S. Cotton Belt will be saddled with below- to much-below normal precipitation.

Daily chart support for March cotton stands at 64.80 cents and 64.00 cents, with resistance hovering about 66.00 cents and 66.45 cents. Wednesday morning’s estimated opening volume is 14,250 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.