Cotton Up, Readies For WASDE

The cotton market is somewhat higher Monday as traders await the January WASDE. Reportedly, USDA will present final 2025 numbers. In addition, the precious metals are off “into the wild blue yonder” Monday morning. Both gold and silver are posting all-time new highs.

Last Friday, the CFTC issued its updated Commitment-of-Traders Report. Its data showed that the managed-money-funds “repurchased” some 1300 positions, reducing their net short carry to 47,772 contracts. For context, their record bearish position exceeded 81,000 contracts.

For Monday’s January WASDE, trade expectation for U.S. 2025/2026 cotton production is 14.20 million bales (range 13.77-14.55 million), which would be 0.07 million less from the December update. Exports are expected at 12.04 million bales (range 11.80-12.20 million), down 0.16 million, and ending stocks are expected at 4.56 million (4.20-4.80 million) up 0.06 million. World production is expected to come in around 119.46 million bales (range 118.80-120.00 million), down 0.33 million from December. Consumption is expected at 118.57 million, down 0.04 million, and ending stocks are expected at 75.62 million bales, down 0.35 million.

There are several key economic reports this week, including Tuesday’s CPI (consumer inflation), Wednesday’s PPI (wholesale inflation), and Thursday’s weekly exports-sales and retail sales. The Fed will be assessing the data for future interest rate considerations. 

Chart support for March Cotton stands at 64.25 cents and 63.85 cents, with resistance hovering about 65.15 cents and 65.75 cents. Monday morning’s estimated opening volume is 8,105 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.