Cotton Up Tuesday, Defying Surrounding Markets

Despite collapsing crude oil, the cotton market is standing somewhat higher Tuesday morning. Traders are gearing up for today’s WASDE, as well as assessing 2026 acres versus very dry field conditions. Also, as the perception that the “Iran Thing” is “winding down”, the U.S. dollar is easing off as well.

Tuesday at noon EDT, USDA will update its supply-demand tables via the March WASDE. Average trade estimates for 2025-26 U.S. cotton production stand at 13.90 million bales, slightly down from the 13.92 million reported in February. Exports are expected at 11.97 million bales versus 12.00 million in February, and ending stocks are expected to be at 4.36 million bales compared to the previous 4.40 million bales. World 2025-26 production is expected at 119.80 million bales, versus the 119.86 million in February. Consumption looks to be 118.75 million versus 118.72, and ending stocks are projected at 74.80 million bales versus 75.11 in the February update.

Wednesday and Thursday, the Commerce Department will release new CPI (consumer inflation) and PPI (wholesale inflation). Their data will likely influence the Federal Reserve at its next meeting regarding interest rates.

Also on Thursday, USDA will issue its weekly export sales report. Last week’s current seasonal sales were 150,000 bales, off 41%. However, weekly shipments of 282,000 bales constituted a marketing-year-high pace. The data will be out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

This Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitment-of-Traders data. Last week, the managed-money funds net sold some 7,500 positions, increasing their net-short carry to 73,973 contracts. For context their record bearish position stands at 81,358 contracts.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 66.10 cents and 65.55 cents, with resistance around 67.50 and 68.00. Tuesday morning’s estimated volume is 16,660 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.