Cotton Will Not Go Away

The cotton market, while seemingly in check, continues to push the bullish envelope. Traders now appear to be more attitude-friendly than technically discouraged. Roiling energy markets and strong grain futures are encouraging cotton traders to think about joining the upside party.

This morning USDA released its weekly export sales with the following numbers: “Net sales of Upland totaling 253,200 RB for 2025/2026 were up 68 percent from the previous week, but down 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (116,300 RB, including 3,200 RB switched from Malaysia and decreases of 400 RB), Bangladesh (28,200 RB), Pakistan (22,200 RB), India (17,100 RB), and Indonesia (14,600 RB), were offset by reductions for Egypt (1,900 RB) and Nicaragua (200 RB). Net sales of 36,600 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for Vietnam (15,100 RB), Turkey (13,200 RB), Bangladesh (7,700 RB), and Thailand (600 RB). Exports of 370,100 RB — a marketing-year high — were up 31 percent from the previous week and 77 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (148,500 RB), Pakistan (47,000 RB), Turkey (35,500 RB), Mexico (29,800 RB), and Indonesia (20,200 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 7,100 RB for 2025/2026 were down 6 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for India (3,200 RB), China (3,100 RB), Bangladesh (500 RB), and Turkey (300 RB). Exports of 17,900 RB — a marketing-year high — were up 44 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to India (9,000 RB), Vietnam (3,700 RB), China (2,300 RB), Egypt (2,200 RB), and Bangladesh (300 RB).”

Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders data. Last week, the managed-money funds net-sold some 7,500 positions, increasing their net-short carry to 73,973 contracts. For context their record bearish position stands at 81,358 contracts.

Crude oil continues to trade nervously higher. Overnight, Europe’s Brent Oil hit $100, while WTI zoomed to $97. Three cargo ships were struck off the coast of Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, some 480 million barrels of oil are scheduled to be released from various strategic reserves to serve as something of an offset.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 66.70 cents and 66.10 cents, with resistance around 67.50 cents and 68.25 cents. Thursday morning’s estimated volume is 14,012 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.