Crude Up, Cotton Down Thursday

The cotton market is slightly lower Thursday morning as it had become technically overbought since its Friday bullish breakout. However, with the Middle East still dominating the global news, replete with $100 WTI oil, traders are thinking a fresh bout of inflation is emerging. Cotton traders will assess that situation, along with Thursday’s export sales and Friday’s CFTC update.

USDA just released its weekly export sales with the following numbers:

“Net sales of Upland totaling 196,700 RB for 2025/2026 were down 22 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (75,700 RB), Turkey (27,800 RB), India (12,700 RB), Costa Rica (11,500 RB), and Indonesia (11,100 RB), were offset by reductions for South Korea (6,200 RB), Pakistan (1,500 RB), and Nicaragua (500 RB). Net sales of 122,200 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for China (48,600 RB), Pakistan (22,000 RB), Vietnam (20,100 RB), Turkey (17,600 RB), and South Korea (6,200 RB). Exports of 273,900 RB were down 26 percent from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (93,700 RB), Pakistan (36,400 RB), Turkey (23,200 RB), China (18,500 RB), and Mexico (17,700 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 7,800 RB for 2025/2026 were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for India (6,700 RB), China (400 RB), Peru (300 RB), Bangladesh (200 RB), and Vietnam (100 RB). Exports of 5,200 RB were down 71 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to India (4,100 RB), Thailand (400 RB), Peru (300 RB), and Japan (200 RB).”

The White House has announced that China had agreed to postpone President Trump’s visit to Beijing. The meeting was delayed as the war with Iran continues in its third week. The U.S./China trade mission has been tentatively pushed out some six to seven weeks.

On Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders information. At last count, managed-money funds were net short a hefty 66,700 contracts. However, given the big volume of Monday and Tuesday, their bearish position may have lessened.

USDA will issue its Planting Intentions Report on March 31. This will be the first official look at 2026 acres. The survey will be released at noon, EDT.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 69.00 cents and 68.75 cents, with resistance around 71.25 cents and 71.75 cents. Thursday morning’s estimated volume is 36,420 contracts

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.