Dry Conditions Prevail

General Overview: ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHWEST, PARTICULARLY ARIZONA. MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA AFFECTING WESTERN MEXICO WITH POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

EAST:  A high pressure system will dominate the Northeast initially, bringing generally dry conditions. However, as we progress through the period, rain and thunderstorm activity will develop across the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions. Florida and the coastal Southeast will experience periods of rain and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday, with precipitation gradually spreading northward. By Friday, low pressure systems developing off the Southeast coast and in Florida will enhance rainfall potential. The Mid-Atlantic states should remain relatively dry until later in the period when some precipitation may develop along coastal areas.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Slightly above normal temperatures (2-4°F) across portions of the Southeast, particularly Georgia and the Carolinas.

-Days 4-6: Cooling trend with below normal temperatures (2-4°F) spreading across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Near normal temperatures returning to the Southeast.

-Days 7-10: Generally near normal temperatures across most of the East, with slight warming trend (1-3°F above normal) developing in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by day 10.

CENTRAL:  An active weather pattern will affect the Central regions with multiple frontal boundaries moving through. Rain and thunderstorms will develop along a frontal boundary stretching from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains on Thursday and Friday. As the system progresses, precipitation will shift eastward. The Central Plains will see rain and thunderstorm activity developing, with some areas potentially receiving significant rainfall. By the weekend, a new frontal system will push through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, bringing additional precipitation chances. The Great Lakes region will experience periods of rain, especially during the latter half of the period.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Near normal temperatures across most of the region with slightly above normal temperatures (3-5°F) in parts of the Central and Southern Plains.

-Days 4-6: Warming trend developing across the Central Plains and Midwest with temperatures 4-8°F above normal, particularly in Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and parts of Missouri.

-Days 7-10: Continued above normal temperatures (6-10°F) across the Central Plains, gradually moderating by day 10 but still remaining 3-6°F above normal across much of the region.

WEST:  The Southwest will experience the most significant weather with heavy rain and potential flash flooding, particularly across Arizona. A high pressure system over Colorado will be flanked by low pressure systems in the Pacific Northwest and Southwest. Mixed precipitation including rain and snow will affect the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. The Southwest will see heavy rain and thunderstorms as moisture from Tropical Storm Priscilla (later becoming post-tropical) moves northward into the region. Flash flooding will be possible in Arizona where the heaviest rainfall is expected. California will experience periods of precipitation, especially along the coast and in the northern portions of the state.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Above normal temperatures (3-6°F) across much of the Southwest and Intermountain West. Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures along the Pacific Coast.

-Days 4-6: Cooling trend developing in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies with temperatures 3-6°F below normal. Continued above normal temperatures (4-8°F) across the Southwest and Southern Rockies.

-Days 7-10: Below normal temperatures (4-8°F) persisting in the Pacific Northwest and parts of California. Above normal temperatures (5-10°F) continuing across the Southwest and Southern Rockies, gradually moderating by day 10.

TROPICAL:
Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Jerry is about 800 miles ESE of the northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. This system is anticipated to develop into a Hurricane in the next 24-48 hours and will likely bring some impacts throughout the Caribbean, including the US Virgin Islands but is expected to re-curve into the Atlantic this weekend with no significant impacts expected to the mainland US at this time. 

Eastern Pacific Basin: Tropical Storm Priscilla is located off the western coast of Mexico and poses a threat to the Mexican coastline. Additionally, Tropical Depression Octave is tracking offshore in the Eastern Pacific. Neither system is expected to directly impact the continental United States, but moisture from these systems may enhance precipitation across portions of the Southwest and Gulf Coast later in the week. Finally, an area of low pressure south of the Mexican coast could develop into the next system in the coming days. Chances are high within 48 hours at 80% and high through the next 7 days at 80%.