DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A portion of the trough will be left behind across the Southeast next week and a new trough will move into the West. They will squeeze the ridge across the Central U.S. as well.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Cool temperatures east of the Rockies will moderate next week with some areas seeing above-normal temperatures by next weekend. A system will move through the Northern Plains in the middle of next week, but showers will be limited.

Another system moving through Canada late next week could bring showers to northern areas as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED…108 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA, AND 4 MILES SOUTH OF TOLLESON, AZ

LOW WED…27 AT 16 MILES WEST OF REDFEATHER LAKES, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY…SAULT STE. MARIE, MI 1.15 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a deepening trough in the East. The trough will be slow to move eastward over the weekend into early next week, with the Canadian portion of the ridge spreading eastward behind it. A portion of the trough will be left behind across the Southeast next week and a new trough will move into the West. They will squeeze the ridge across the Central U.S. as well.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Another system moving through Canada late next week could bring showers to northern areas as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Another strong front will move through on Thursday with another round of cold air that could mean some frosts through the weekend. Temperatures will at least fall into the 30s in many areas. If frosts do occur, they could quickly end what has been a strong summer of good weather and cut back on yields significantly.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through Friday into the weekend. Scattered showers will be possible with both fronts, but temperatures will take another dip, being below normal into Monday. A system will likely develop in the region along the stalled front again Sunday or Monday with more showers moving through the south. For maturing corn and soybeans, any rain would not be favorable. However, for those that could still use a rain, it would be. Temperatures will rise next week and should be beneficial for harvest.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through over the last couple of days and another will move through tonight and Friday. In addition to scattered showers, the fronts are bringing through some very cold air. Temperatures may break below 40 degrees across the north and frosts cannot be ruled out through Monday. If frosts do occur, it would be extremely early and put an end to the season well before normal.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers moved through this week. Another front will drop south into the region over the weekend with a few showers as well. Otherwise, drier weather should favor maturing crops and harvest. Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to drop and the lack of rainfall in the Ohio Valley especially will cause transportation issues this fall.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front across the south will continue to produce rainfall through Saturday, getting showers as far north as Parana.

Another front will move through southern areas with showers Sunday and Monday.

Spring planting will begin in a couple of weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south, which seems to be the case. Central Brazil will wait until wet season rains arrive at the end of September or more likely in October.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Recent heavy rainfall was beneficial for heading wheat as well as increasing soil moisture ahead of corn planting, which begins in a couple of weeks. Cold air is producing some frosts though, and heading winter wheat may have sustained some damage. Producers may delay the start of corn planting until they feel temperatures will cooperate. A couple of fronts over the next couple of weeks may bring through some more risks of cold air and frosts that could cause damage to winter crops and delays to harvest.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level system has brought waves of showers through much of the continent this week. More rain is expected to move through in several waves next week as well. For areas with immature corn and other summer crops, the rain has been and will be beneficial. It will also prep soils ahead of winter wheat planting, which begins this month.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though Europe has been active with rainfall lately, the Black Sea region has not as the poor end of the season continues for much of the region, especially southwestern Russia. The active pattern over Europe will continue to largely bypass the region, which not only puts on a bad end to the current season, but also is poor for the coming winter wheat planting season, which begins this month.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system will move through Western Australia over the next couple of days with widespread showers. The system will lose a lot of its potential for showers as it moves through the east this weekend, but may bring a better shot of rain with a secondary system early next week, at least for some areas. Western Australia has had favorable weather conditions for the last couple of months while the east has had hit-or-miss weather and longer stretches of low precipitation or complete dryness. With wheat heading, we could be seeing some yield limitations in the east.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent rainfall across central China has been favorable given the region has had issues with heat and dryness throughout much of the season. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions. Central China will go through a brief dry period through the middle of the week before another system moves through for late week. The heavier rainfall in the central is also favorable for prepping soils ahead of winter wheat and canola planting.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures below to well below normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below to well below normal Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Thursday, north Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias…

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to above normal north and below normal south Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Weather Brief