DTN Before The Bell Grains

DTN Before The Bell Grains

CME GLOBEX RECAP:

December corn is down 3 1/2, November soybeans are down 3 1/2. December KC wheat is up 3/4, Dec Chicago wheat is down 1 1/4, and December MIAX Minneapolis wheat is down .0225 cents. 

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrials Index fell 249 points Tuesday and Dow futures are down 97 points early Wednesday. October crude oil is down $1.21 per barrel. The U.S. Dollar Index is down .085 and October gold is up $18.80 an ounce, having risen to a new high.

CORN:

December corn futures are lower early Wednesday and threatening to end the streak of three straight higher days. In typical fashion, corn crop ratings fell in the past week by 2 percentage points to a still favorable 69% good to excellent with 90% of the crop in the dough stage and 58% dented — close to the 5-year average pace. The crop is now 15% mature and just over the average for this time of year. Key states like Iowa and Wisconsin remain highly rated at 83% to 84% good to excellent with Pennsylvania close at 82%. Corn export demand continues to be solid, but the U.S. faces increased competition from Ukraine and Argentina. The Argentine corn offers are the world’s cheapest in the September to November time frame. Corn inspections last week were good at 55.4 million bushels (mb) and total shipments are now 2.636 billion bushels (bb) and well above a year ago at 2.050 bb. Corn used for ethanol in July jumped 2% from June to close to 456 mb. Traders are still uncertain over the impact of the Trump administration tariffs, but an appeals court ruled that some are illegal and that will likely be decided by the Supreme Court. Weather features a cold front moving through the Corn Belt Wednesday with a possible frost event Thursday for parts of Iowa and Wisconsin. Some showers are moving through those states early Wednesday. Some areas of the southern and eastern Midwest remain too dry but have a better chance midweek. The corn market is approaching a very overbought level. DTN’s National Corn Index closed at $3.82 and 41 cents below the December contract.

SOYBEANS:

Soybean and bean oil futures are falling early Wednesday with bean oil impacted by the reversal in crude oil and soybeans being pressured by the failure to arrive at a grain-specific trade deal with China. Soybean meal futures are also a bit lower, having resumed the downtrend, pressured by plants coming back online this month. Soy conditions fell by 4 percentage points last week to 65% good to excellent, with the national crop rising two points in the poor-to-very-poor category to 10%. The crop is 94% setting pods and equal to the average while 11% of the crop is dropping leaves — slightly better than average. There remain some dry areas in the southern and eastern Midwest, which have been challenged over the last month. The market seems reluctant to break much on the idea that dryness could clip yield back. However, on the demand side, with China having covered part of November and even some of their December needs, time is running short for a trade deal. The meeting of leaders from India and Russia in China to form a collaboration certainly indicated China is not ready to bend to the requests of the Trump administration any time soon. The next likely meeting between U.S. and China officials might be October or November. Some are already penciling in the loss of over 300 mb in soy sales as a result. The Census crush in July was reported to be 204.7 mb and just under the average trade guess of 207.2 mb, but far above last year’s 193.4 mb grind. Bean oil stocks at 1.873 billion pounds fell to a 7-month low. The weather projects a better rain chance in the 6- to 10-day part of the forecast and that is needed with Illinois said to be losing soil moisture. The soybean momentum appears to be rolling over with a fall below $10.30 on November likely to be a bearish omen. DTN’s National Soybean Index closed at $9.65 with a soybean basis of 76 under the November futures. Wednesday morning, USDA reported private export sales of 185,000 metric tons (mt) of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year.

WHEAT:

Wheat markets are again mostly lower with each market hovering just above contract lows, but Kansas City in the plus column. Both the Paris milling wheat contract and MIAX Minneapolis futures fell to new lows Tuesday. The U.S. spring wheat harvest advanced 19 percentage points to 72% complete and that is just above the average while crop conditions remained steady. Falling Russian values and rising production estimates for both Russia and Australia have weighed on world wheat prices. Australia’s ABARES on Tuesday raised the Aussie wheat crop by 2.8 million metric tons (mmt) to 33.8 mmt. While slightly below last year, that is sharply higher than the 10-year average. Russian FOB wheat prices have fallen to $230 metric ton (mt) with both French and Argentine wheat at parity. Tenders include Jordan, which passed on its tender for 120,000 mt, along with Bangladesh for 50,000 mt, Syria for 200,000 mt and Tunisia for 125,000 mt of milling wheat. U.S. wheat inspections last week were impressive at 34.8 mb, putting this year’s total shipments at 212 mb compared to 191 mb a year ago. Funds remain net-short both Chicago and KC wheat. DTN’s National HRW Index closed at $4.33 and 79 under the December futures board.

Dana Mantini can be reached at Dana.Mantini@dtn.com