Grain, Soy Markets Begin the Week Mixed with Corn Weaker

CME GLOBEX RECAP:

December corn is down 1 3/4, November soybeans are up 1 1/4 cents. December KC wheat is up 2 1/2, Dec Chicago wheat is up 2 1/4, and December MIAX Minneapolis wheat is up 0.0025.  

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrials Index fell 220 points Friday and Dow futures are up 70 points early Monday. October crude oil is up $1.23 per barrel. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.134 and October gold is up $6.20 an ounce.

CORN:

Corn futures start the week on the defensive, pressured by the advancing harvest, falling South American and Ukraine premiums, and still lofty production estimates despite the dry finish to the crop in some areas. Although some showers are moving across Kansas Monday morning, the radar looks fairly clear, allowing the harvest to advance. Corn has lost a bit of its competitive edge as both South American and Ukraine corn premiums have fallen hard lately. Ukraine has begun its corn harvest and APK Inform again raised total Ukraine grain production by 5.6 million metric tons (mmt) to 58.8 mmt. Corn harvest is pegged at 30.3 mmt. Despite the dry but mostly cool finish to the crop in many areas, farm advisory firms and commission houses are still very optimistic that we will see a record yield and crop from the USDA on Friday. S & P Global raised their estimate for U.S. corn to a record 189.1 bushels per acre (bpa) with a crop of just under 16.7 billion bushels (bb). Stone X was not far behind that at 186.9 bpa. Weather featured some frost in northern Corn Belt areas over the weekend, and in Argentina, there has been frost with more predicted. After September 15, there are more showers projected for the western and central belt. U.S. corn exports have been stellar this year, and last week’s new crop export sales were 83.3 million bushels (mb), with total commitments (shipments and outstanding sales) at 2.763 bb and 98% of USDA’s estimate. Funds reduced their net short last week but remain short nearly 90,000 contracts. The path of least resistance appears to be down for corn. Monday’s crop progress report is expected to result in another 1 to 2 percentage point fall in good to excellent. DTN national Corn Index closed at $3.78 and 42 cents below the December contract.

SOYBEANS:

Soybean futures are modestly higher with bean oil reacting to the upside on the heels of the crude oil strength. Despite OPEC’s decision to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, crude oil is recovering early Monday. Soybean meal futures are a bit weaker to start. The weekend frost event in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest could have impacted soy yields, but the larger problem remains slack demand with no sign of China buying new crop U.S. beans yet. With the ongoing tariff battle, China has ramped up South American purchases in advance, taking a record amount for August of 12.3 mmt with much of that from Brazil, Argentina and even Uruguay. For the first eight months, China has bought 73.3 mmt and that is up 4% from a year ago. On Friday a new sale of 12 mb of soy sales was announced to unknown destinations and some speculate that it could be China. We’ll have to wait and see, but so far, China has not bought one bushel of new crop U.S. beans. Analysts feel that China has already covered needs to mid-November, narrowing the window for U.S. sales. Although soybeans have likely been impacted much more by the dry finish to the 2025 crop, analysts and farm advisory firms have still projected as late as last week that soy yield would fall in a range of 53.2 bpa to 53.8 bpa (S & P Global). Crop Progress is expected to show a decline in good to excellent conditions, but expectations are that the lack of demand will far outweigh any loss of production. One farm advisory firm has already lowered U.S. soy exports by a hefty 265 mb. On Friday, the USDA is expected to begin ratcheting down U.S. exports. DTN’s National Soybean Index closed at $9.56 with a soybean basis of 77 under the November futures.

WHEAT:

In a rare show of modest strength all three wheat markets along with the French milling wheat futures are starting with a small gain early Monday. However, each market is just above the newly minted contract lows set last week. Pressure continues to come from large stocks looking for importer demand with both Russian, EU and southern hemisphere wheat offers falling. The UN’s FAO raised global grain stocks to a record large 898.7 mmt, up 9.6 mmt, with production up 35.6 mmt. Spring wheat harvest in the U.S. is now in the home stretch, and spot basis levels are said to be weakening. The hard red winter basis in the Southern Plains is reported to be 95 under futures, giving corn a run for the money. On a slightly friendly note, despite good rain picking up wheat prospects for both Argentina and Australia, Argentina has already had frost, and more is on the way, which could impact wheat there. Funds have covered some but remain net short roughly 90,000 contracts of Chicago wheat. The wheat markets are oversold and especially MIAX Minneapolis, but that does not seem to matter. Tenders this week include the usual Bangladesh and Jordan tenders and on September 15, Syria will be in for 200,000 mt of soft milling wheat. DTN’s National HRW Index closed at $4.29 and 77 under the December futures board.

Dana Mantini can be reached at Dana.Mantini@dtn.com