DTN Canola Analysis & Recommendations

11/20/2025

**Note To Readers**

Beginning in mid-November, CFTC announced they will begin chronologically releasing Commitments of Traders reports delayed by the government shutdown from Oct. 1 through Nov. 12 on a bi-weekly basis. As a result, DTN’s Six Factors Strategies will begin reflecting the most recently released commercial and noncommercial positions beginning on Nov. 21, which will be several weeks in arrears and are not planned to be current until late January. We thank you for your patience as the government works to catch up on delayed reports.

There was a new recommendation on June 17, 2025, for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons.

POSITIONS

2025-26: Made a forward sale of 20% of 2025 canola production on June 17,2025 with November canola trading near C$740.00. 80% of 2025 canola production remains unsold.

2024-25: Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on June 17, 2025, for June delivery with July canola trading near C$745.00. 25% of 2024 canola production remains unsold.

2024-25: Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on April 22, 2025 when July canola was near C$673.00. 50% of 2024-25 canola production remains unsold.

2024-25: Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on May 31 when November canola was near C$678.00.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT

The trend in January canola is revised to sideways. The dry start to the 2025 growing season in western Canada gave way to much improved conditions by mid-summer, pushing production expectations to 5% higher than 2024 at 22.6 million tons as of the most recent AAFC report. From a demand standpoint, canola exports are running behind the same point in 2024 as they continue to face tariffs from China in response to Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, although recent trade negotiations have leaned positive towards a possible solution. Meanwhile, domestic crush usage is higher year over year. November canola is currently a neutral, Type 3 market.

DAILY NOTE

January canola futures closed down C$9.10 on Friday to C$641.10. Grain and oilseed markets mounted a recovery from overnight lows with soybeans leading the way as liquidation in cryptocurrencies finally slowed. Corn, soybeans, soybean meal and wheat all turned positive while soybean oil and canola continued to lag thanks to ongoing declines in energy prices. Pressure on Ukraine to agree to a peace plan worked out between the U.S. and Russia or lose American support had energy traders assuming Russian oil will become more readily available sooner rather than later. President Zelensky has reportedly rejected the plan and is currently working with European leaders on a counterproposal. The trend in canola futures is sideways for now.

RECOMMENDATIONS*

(6/17/2025)

2024-25 and 2025-26:

We are recommending a sale of 25% of 2024-25 canola production for June delivery with July canola futures trading near C$745/mt. We are also recommending selling the first 20% of conservatively expected 2025 canola production with November canola futures trading near C$740/mt. We are recommending these sales, not because we have lost faith in the bullish fundamentals of strong demand amid tight supplies and concerns over new crop production, but as part of a disciplined marketing strategy that rewards market rallies with incremental sales. With July canola now over $180/mt above the March low and November canola now $160/mt above its March low, both canola and soybean oil are looking overbought and due for a correction, and the best hope for widespread rainfall this spring in extended forecasts — failing to do so would not be appropriate. With 25% of 2024-25 production remaining, we expect to look for a rally to $800/mt resistance to make the final sales recommendation for old crop — always on the lookout for a potential need to abandon the strategy.

(4/22/2025)

2024-25:

We are recommending a sale of 25% of 2024-25 canola production for April/May delivery with July canola currently trading above C$670/mt. We are recommending the sale, not because we have lost faith in the bullish fundamentals of strong demand amid tight supplies, but as part of a disciplined marketing strategy that rewards market rallies with incremental sales. With July canola now over $100/mt above the March low, basis levels improving by over $20/mt and some profit taking at February highs being seen recently — failing to do so would not be appropriate. With 50% of 2024-25 production remaining, we expect to look for a break above resistance to make additional sales this spring.

(5/31/2024)

2024-25:

Take advantage of the recent spring rally and make a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production at this time. November canola is trading near C$678.00.

(1/26/2024)

2023-24:

Oilseed and vegetable oil markets continue to break down with the March contract returning close to the January low as prospects of a large Brazil soybean crop weigh on prices. Sell 50% of 2023-24 canola for May delivery, focusing on crusher sales wherever possible. The May is close to $620/mt.

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*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.