DTN Canola Analysis & Recommendations

12/02/2025

**Note To Readers**

Beginning in mid-November, CFTC announced they will begin chronologically releasing Commitments of Traders reports delayed by the government shutdown from Oct. 1 through Nov. 12 on a bi-weekly basis. As a result, DTN’s Six Factors Strategies will begin reflecting the most recently released commercial and noncommercial positions beginning on Nov. 21, which will be several weeks in arrears and are not planned to be current until late January. We thank you for your patience as the government works to catch up on delayed reports.

There was a new recommendation on June 17, 2025, for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons.

POSITIONS

2025-26: Made a forward sale of 20% of 2025 canola production on June 17,2025 with November canola trading near C$740.00. 80% of 2025 canola production remains unsold.

2024-25: Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on June 17, 2025, for June delivery with July canola trading near C$745.00. 25% of 2024 canola production remains unsold.

2024-25: Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on April 22, 2025 when July canola was near C$673.00. 50% of 2024-25 canola production remains unsold.

2024-25: Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on May 31 when November canola was near C$678.00.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT

The trend in January canola is revised to sideways. The dry start to the 2025 growing season in western Canada gave way to much improved conditions by mid-summer, pushing production expectations to 4% higher than 2024 at 20.03 million metric tons as of the most recent AAFC report. Still, due to lower carry in stocks from the tight 2024-25 season, total supply of canola is expected to be just under 4% lower than last year. From a demand standpoint, canola exports are running behind the same point in 2024 as they continue to face tariffs from China in response to Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Meanwhile, domestic crush usage is running about even with last year. Ending canola stocks are expected to rise in 2025-26, which has kept a lid on post-harvest rally efforts. November canola is currently a neutral, Type 3 market

DAILY NOTE

January canola futures closed down C$2.40 on Tuesday to C$644.80. Wheat led the way higher Tuesday (with a $.15/bushel gains off overnight lows at one point) on threats from Vladimir Putin to escalate the war with Ukraine by cutting off its access to the sea (by expanding strikes on ports and ships destined for those ports). That threat also turned corn sharply higher on the session, reversing early losses. Soybeans were largely unaffected by the news, but soybean oil closed higher thanks to initial gains in energy markets on the threats of escalation. Canola gave up its early gains when soybeans retreated, again comfortable as an observer to the soybean oil rally ahead of Thursday’s Statistics Canada final production estimates. The trend in canola futures is sideways for now.

RECOMMENDATIONS*

(6/17/2025)

2024-25 and 2025-26:

We are recommending a sale of 25% of 2024-25 canola production for June delivery with July canola futures trading near C$745/mt. We are also recommending selling the first 20% of conservatively expected 2025 canola production with November canola futures trading near C$740/mt. We are recommending these sales, not because we have lost faith in the bullish fundamentals of strong demand amid tight supplies and concerns over new crop production, but as part of a disciplined marketing strategy that rewards market rallies with incremental sales. With July canola now over $180/mt above the March low and November canola now $160/mt above its March low, both canola and soybean oil are looking overbought and due for a correction, and the best hope for widespread rainfall this spring in extended forecasts — failing to do so would not be appropriate. With 25% of 2024-25 production remaining, we expect to look for a rally to $800/mt resistance to make the final sales recommendation for old crop — always on the lookout for a potential need to abandon the strategy.

(4/22/2025)

2024-25:

We are recommending a sale of 25% of 2024-25 canola production for April/May delivery with July canola currently trading above C$670/mt. We are recommending the sale, not because we have lost faith in the bullish fundamentals of strong demand amid tight supplies, but as part of a disciplined marketing strategy that rewards market rallies with incremental sales. With July canola now over $100/mt above the March low, basis levels improving by over $20/mt and some profit taking at February highs being seen recently — failing to do so would not be appropriate. With 50% of 2024-25 production remaining, we expect to look for a break above resistance to make additional sales this spring.

(5/31/2024)

2024-25:

Take advantage of the recent spring rally and make a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production at this time. November canola is trading near C$678.00.

(1/26/2024)

2023-24:

Oilseed and vegetable oil markets continue to break down with the March contract returning close to the January low as prospects of a large Brazil soybean crop weigh on prices. Sell 50% of 2023-24 canola for May delivery, focusing on crusher sales wherever possible. The May is close to $620/mt.

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*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.