DTN Canola Six Factors

TREND: The trend for January canola is revised to sideways.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders were net-short 32,633 contracts of canola as of Oct. 7, the most recent CFTC data. Traders were net-sellers of 12,506 contracts from the previous week’s position.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial traders held a net-long position of 34,336 contracts of canola as of Oct. 7, the most recent CFTC report. January canola is currently priced C$12.60 below the March futures contract, a carry structure that widened over the most recent week.

SEASONAL INDEX: Canola prices tend to peak between December and February and bottom in July or August.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The price of front month (January) canola closed the most recent week at the 15th percentile, an inexpensive price location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: The three-month price volatility for front month (January) canola fell to 4% as canola prices traded lower on the week and snapped a streak of six consecutive higher weeks.