DTN Closing Grain Comments
Ag markets began the new week, the new month, and new marketing year for corn and soybeans with a lower session, driven primarily by a sharp selloff in soybeans after last week's trade meetings in Washington between Chinese negotiator Li Chenggang and U.S. officials concluded with no deal (although this was always unlikely). There are plans to hold another round of talks prior to the tariff truce extensions cutoff in November. Meanwhile, wheat futures crashed Tuesday as well as world production forecasts for 2025 continue to rise. Outside markets Tuesday saw U.S. equities move firmly lower as September has a tendency to be a bearish month for stocks historically. Energy markets were higher with NYMEX crude oil futures trading among their highest price in just under a month.
(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)
DTN Closing Grain Comments
GENERAL COMMENTS:
December corn closed up 2 3/4 cents and March corn was up 3 cents. November soybeans closed down 13 1/2 cents and January soybeans were down 13 cents. December KC wheat closed down 8 1/2 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 6 cents, December MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 5 3/4 cents.
The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.60 at 98.37. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 410.0 points at 45,191.0. December gold is up $78.90 at $3,595.0, December silver is up $0.92 at $41.64 and December copper is up $0.0435. October crude oil is up $1.58 at $65.59, October ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.1041, October RBOB gasoline is up $0.0736 and October natural gas is up $0.013.
CORN:
December corn futures rose 2 3/4 cents Tuesday to $4.23. March futures were up 3 cents to $4.40 3/4. Corn futures were able to shake off early session weakness to begin the shortened week with an impressive reversal higher, made more impressive by corn trading counter to falling soybean and wheat markets. In a positive technical session, prices on the December contract also held on a test of support at the 50-day moving average near $4.14 3/4, posting the first consecutive closes above the mark since late May. The next upside target for bullish traders could reasonably be the 100-day moving average near $4.31, which the December contract has not touched since late May as well.
In corn weather, the last week was again on the dry side for the Belt, especially the further east you go. The next two weeks are slated to be hit or miss for before wider coverage is expected in the far Eastern Corn Belt by mid-September. Monday’s afternoon crop conditions from USDA will be interesting to see if any stress is reflected in those states ranging from Arkansas north through Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Temperatures are also forecasted to be well below normal across much of the Midwest this week, which may be limiting some crop stress; unless of course temps should slip into freezing territory, which seems unlikely but will be something to monitor through this week.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Friday at $3.79. Tuesday’s futures close and implied corn basis of 41 cents under the December board would indicate the index on Tuesday afternoon to be near $3.82.
SOYBEANS:
November soybeans fell 13 1/2 cents Tuesday to $10.41. January futures were down 13 cents to $10.59 1/2. Soybean prices fell quickly by double digits to begin the new week and month, retreating back toward what has been chart support near $10.40. It seems apparent at this point that traders are unwilling to allow soybean prices to rally much beyond $10.50 on the November board with big question marks still remaining on both 2025 yields as well as demand with China still not a buyer of U.S. soybeans.
The Energy Information Administration reported last Friday that in June U.S. plants used 1.045 billion pounds of soybean oil for the production of biodiesel and renewable diesel, the largest amount for the 2025 calendar year thus far and also the largest share of the feedstock mix for soybean oil since October of 2024 as the usage of alternative imported fats such as used cooking oil have subsided with recent EPA policy as well as tariffs. USDA will also release their July soybean crushing report later Tuesday afternoon which will give an update on the industry as a whole, where stocks of soybean oil have been historically low through the year.
The delayed Crop Progress report due out from USDA Tuesday afternoon will also be an interesting one given the dry conditions through August pod-filling for several significant growing regions specifically in the southern and eastern half of the U.S. Grain Belt.
The DTN National Soybean Index finished Friday at $9.83. Tuesday’s futures close and implied soybean basis of 72 cents under the November board would indicate the index on Tuesday afternoon to be near $9.70.
WHEAT:
December Kansas City futures traded 8 1/2 cents lower Tuesday to $5.11 1/4. Chicago and Minneapolis varieties were also lower to begin the new week. Traders quickly erased the 2-day rally in wheat futures which closed last week, as speculators were likely just securing some profit and squaring short positions ahead of month end. December KC futures narrowly avoided setting a new intraday contract low but did settle at the lowest closing price for the contract.
The wheat market remains plagued by adequate supply following harvests across the Northern Hemisphere this summer that all achieved — or in some cases overachieved — what had been expected through the growing season. The market will now shift attention to both the planting of 2026 winter crops in the Northern Hemisphere, but also on the winter crops set to be harvested later this year in the Southern Hemisphere, most notably in Australia and Argentina. Despite some growing difficulties notably periods of excess moisture in Argentina and drought in Australia, both crops are expected to be decent at this point although we still have some time to go in the growing seasons. As for plantings of the 2026 winter crop, good rainfall in the Southern Plains in the U.S. is a good set up heading into planting later this fall. However, in the Black Sea area it has been drier than normal through August, which will be something to watch as planting nears for that region for both the Russian and Ukrainian crops.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Friday at $4.50, while the DTN National HRS Index was at $5.30. Tuesday’s futures closes and implied basis of 70 cents under the December board for HRW, and 50 cents under the December board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Tuesday afternoon to be near $4.41 and $5.24, respectively.
Rhett Montgomery can be reached at Rhett.Montgomery@dtn.com
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