DTN Early Word Grains

DTN Early Word Grains

EARLY MORNING GLOBEX NET CHANGES: December corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel, November soybeans are down 3 1/2 cents, December KC wheat is down 4 cents, December Chicago wheat is down 5 cents, and MIAX December Minneapolis wheat is up 0.0100 cents.

CME GLOBEX RECAP: Corn, soybean, and wheat futures closed lower across the board on Wednesday. Soybean prices have dropped nearly 26 cents since the start of the week. Traders are favoring big crops over any yield-cutting issues. Additionally, the absence of business from China looms over the market. For corn, the trade gave no credence to a weaker crop rating this week. Traders are taking a show-me attitude toward any crop risk premium. The yield monitors will have to do the talking. Wheat traders know the world supply for the next six months looks robust. Thus, wheat prices can gain very little traction.

OUTSIDE MARKETS: The previous close on Wednesday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 24.58 at 45,271.23 and the S&P 500 up 32.72 at 6,448.26. The 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 4.211%. Early Thursday, the September Dow Jones Futures are up 36 points. European markets are higher, with the spot futures of London’s FTSE 100 trading up 0.24%, spot futures of Germany’s DAX are trading up 0.77% and the spot futures of France’s CAC 40 Index are up 0.05%. Asian markets are mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index up 1.53% and China’s Shanghai Composite Index down 1.25%. The September euro is down 0.001 at 1.166, and the September U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.097 at 98.180. The December 30-Year T-Bond is up 7/32nds, while December gold is down $34.30 at $3,601.20, and October crude oil is down $0.76 at $63.21. On China’s Dalian Exchange, November corn was down 0.41% while November soybeans were down 0.13%, January soybean meal was up 0.03% and November Malaysian Palm Oil was trading up 0.16%.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN:

Corn futures edged 3/4 of a cent lower early Thursday morning, with the December contract at $4.17 1/4 per bushel. Technically, another test of potential support could be coming at the 50-day moving average near $4.14 1/2. The trend is down as long as the market tries to hold the 50-day moving average and is ready to challenge the 100-day. Fundamentally, a weaker crop rating for multiple Corn Belt states couldn’t provide support on Wednesday. Instead, traders still know the corn ratings ended August with the second-highest level for the last ten years. Thursday’s weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report is expected to show ethanol production steady to slightly lower compared with last week. USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report will be delayed until Friday. Results of a private analyst survey estimated a U.S. corn yield at 187.52 bushels per acre (bpa) and production at 16.63 billion bushels (bb).

SOYBEANS:

Soybean futures are down 2 3/4 cents early Thursday, with November at $10.28 3/4 per bushel. Technically, the November contract closed on Wednesday back below the 20-day moving average ($10.33 1/2) for the first time since Aug. 8, appearing bound for a test of major support near the 100-day and 50-day moving averages in the $10.20s. USDA reported a fresh sale of 185,000 metric tons (mt) of soybean meal for the 2025-26 marketing year to the Philippines on Wednesday. Traders are waiting and watching for new-crop sales to China. Demand will have to pick up, with U.S. farmers prepping combines for a big harvest. Not only are some U.S. farmers still sitting on last year’s crop, reports indicate Argentina’s farmers have sold little from last year. USDA’s lower crop ratings this week didn’t spook the market. Soybean prices have dropped 26 cents since the Labor Day holiday break. Eastern Corn Belt states have been dry, possibly taking off the top end of yield potential. However, this week’s 65% good-to-excellent rating is still the fourth-best end-of-August rating in ten years.

WHEAT:

Wheat futures are trading 4 1/2 cents lower early Wednesday morning, with December contracts trading at $5.17 1/2 per bushel. This week’s USDA Crop Progress Report brought the end of the 2025 winter wheat harvest, while the spring wheat harvest, at 72% completed, is above the five-year pace. Price pressure is coming from all directions. Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Russia, and the U.S. all expect to have strong output this year. Russia may have quality issues, but the robust global supplies hang over the market.