DTN Feed Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend for May corn is revised to higher for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 312,342 contracts as of March 17 and were net-buyers of 54,561 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as prices rallied on bullish influence from energy markets due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 255,623 contracts as of March 17 and were net-sellers of 46,441 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The May 2026 contract is priced 10 1/2 cents lower than the July 2026 contract, narrowing (less carry) slightly through the week, but still among the highest degree of carry between the two contracts through their trading life. National average corn basis held steady through the week at 41 cents under the May board, the weakest basis of the past decade for mid-March.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front month (May) corn futures contract finished the most recent week down 1 point and at the 18th percentile, an attractive location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (May) corn contract rose to 7% this week after prices traded narrowly lower for the first time in four weeks.