Cotton Adjusts Higher

The cotton market is fractionally higher Monday morning as some traders are squaring positions ahead of the month and quarter end. Still, the technical trend remains down, harvest 2025 is unfolding, and there is no trade deal of any description with China.

Friday the CFTC issued its Commitments of Traders Report. Per usual, last week’s calculation was through Tuesday’s settlement. At any rate, the managed-money funds had sold 2,943 positions, elevating their net-short carry to 62,000 contracts. Their record bearish carry is slightly below the 80,000-contract mark.

Monday at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will report on the condition of the 2025 crop, as well as harvest progress. As of last week, the overall good-to-excellent rating had slipped under the long-held 50% mark to 47%.

Tuesday at noon, USDA will issue its quarterly grain stocks data. There will be no cotton stats involved, but nonetheless the data is important to cotton-marketing decisions.

The 6- to 10-day weather outlook calls for above-normal temperatures for Texas, as well as the Southeast and the Delta. Rain-wise, Texas looks to have normal chances, while the Southeast and mid-Atlantic States should see slightly above normal precipitation possibilities for offshore hurricanes. 

Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 66.00 cents and 65.50 cents, with resistance at 66.90 cents and 67.50 cents. Monday morning’s estimated volume is 5,527 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 890-7780.