Cotton Suffers Shutdown Syndrome

The cotton market is quiet to lower Thursday as traders assess the fallout from the government shutdown. As of this writing, it appears the normal flow of information from various agencies is in suspension.

USDA may not issue its regularly weekly export sales data this morning. Last week saw sales of 86,000 bales, down 54%, but shipments were 137,200 bales, plus 14%.

Cumulative sales for 2025-26 have reached 4.06 million bales, down from 4.87 million at this time last year (which was already slow), and the lowest in at least ten years. Sales have reached 36% of USDA ‘s forecast versus the 5-year average of 53% sold at this point in the marketing year.

The CFTC usually issues its Commitments of Traders Report in the afternoon on Fridays, but that release seems in doubt. Last week’s calculation, per the Tuesday settlement, the managed-money funds had sold some 2,900 positions, thereby increasing their overall bearish stake to 62,004 contracts. Their record bearish carry is slightly below the 80,000-contract mark.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in four weeks and topping his agenda will be U.S. agriculture. China has bought very little cotton and zero soybeans this season from the U.S.

South American weather is being forecasted as follows: Rainfall is expected to be near to above normal in the Amazon River Basin and northwestern Mato Grosso. Similar conditions are likely in southern Paraguay, far southern Brazil, Uruguay and some immediate neighboring areas of eastern Argentina. The remainder of Brazil and western Argentina will experience near to below normal precipitation.

Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 65.25 cents and 64.30 cents, with resistance at 66.00 cents and 66.75 cents. Thursday morning’s estimated volume is 12,337 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 890-7780.