Cotton is Dazed, Confused and Flat

The cotton market is at a virtual standstill Friday morning, as traders lacking information and data are not particularly interested in participating. The government’s shutdown is delaying indefinitely critical USDA reports from the trading public. So, it’s a waiting game, all the while the 2025 harvest moves along pretty much unimpeded.

For now, Thursday’s weekly export sales, Friday morning’s monthly jobs report, this afternoon’s CFTC numbers, and next week’s October WASDE have been postponed.

Crude oil is slightly higher Friday, but remains on course for a weekly loss of nearly 8%. The driving news is the potential production increases by OPEC next month. Eight members of the cartel may agree to ramp up crude production in November by as much as 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). That amount would be two or three times higher than the October increase.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, per last Tuesday, shows 59% of the U.S. cotton area is suffering various intensities of dry/drought conditions. This is the highest reading for this 2025 season.

The 6- to 10-day weather outlook calls for above-normal temperatures for Texas, as well for the Southeast and the Delta. Rain-wise, Texas looks to have normal chances. However, the Southeast may see some heavy localized rain due to a tropical swirl building off the Florida coast.

Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 64.70 cents and 62.75 cents, with resistance at 65.75 cents and 66.50 cents. Friday morning’s estimated volume is 5,632 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 890-7780.