DTN Morning Cotton Commentary

DTN Morning Cotton Commentary

The cotton market is commencing the new month slightly under the thumb. Lacking strong demand, even with a weakening U.S. dollar, the market continues to wander about within the confines of its bearish trend. Soon it will be facing the weight of the 2025 harvest.

The CFTC updated its Commitment of Traders data last Friday. Its new read showed that the manage-money funds had sold 3,614 contracts per last Tuesday’s settlement. That action lifted their current net-short position to 59,931 contracts. Their record is nearly 80,000 contracts.

This afternoon at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will issue its weekly crop condition numbers. Last week’s rating had the 2025 crop at 54% good to excellent. Last year at this time the crop was 40% good to excellent.

Crude oil is higher today as the Ukraine war escalations raised questions over the resilience of Russian supplies. In addition, traders are pondering a secondary level of tariffs against Russia by the U.S.

A federal appeals court ruled on Friday that President Trump’s global tariffs are illegal. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit determined in a 7-4 ruling that only Congress has the authority to apply sweeping levies. Trump called the decision “Highly Partisan” and has said that he will appeal the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court.

We note that due to the Labor Day observance, the weekly export sales have been pushed back to Friday.

Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 66.27 cents and 65.85 cents, with resistance at 67.00 cents and 67.75 cents. Tuesday morning’s estimated volume is 6,545 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 890-7780.