DTN Soybean Analysis and Recommendations
10/20/2025
**Note To Readers**
Due to the ongoing government shutdown, updated Commitments of Traders data will not be included in DTN’s weekly Six Factors Strategy update until the CFTC report resumes its normal Friday afternoon publication. Thank you for your understanding.
The most recent Recommendation was on Aug. 5, 2025. See Recommendations below.
POSITIONS
2025-26: Sold 15% of 2025-26 soybean production with November soybean futures trading near $10.27 and the DTN National Soybean Index likely near $9.54, for net cash of approximately $9.35 after deduction of previous put protection cost. 50% of 2025-26 production remains unsold.
2025-26: Liquidated half of previous put protection at 3 5/8 cents, locking in a 16 3/8 cent cost for hedge on 25% of 2025 production. Sold 15% of 2025-26 soybean production with November soybeans trading near $10.53, for a net hedge very near to $10.37 futures, and a cash price likely near to $9.70, depending on fills.
2025-26: Purchased $9.80 November 2025 soybean puts, bid at 20 cents per bushel, representing 50% of 2025 soybean production.
2025-26: Sold first 20% of 2025-26 soybean production with November soybean futures trading near $10.55.
2024-25: 100% sold on 2024/25 soybean production. Average cash sale ~ $10.48.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
The trend in November soybean futures is sideways for now. Recent firming in soybean futures spreads and soybean basis through harvest suggests the possibility of lower yields than the market was expecting, or a surge in demand through low prices at harvest, or some combination of both. However, this bullish argument is countered by ongoing demand concerns stemming from the U.S. trading relationship with China which has hit a recent low point over the past couple weeks. Still, some optimism remains in the market as the summit between President Trump and President Xi of China is currently still planned for the end of October. For now, prices dropping near $10.00 continues to attract buyers to the market, and soybean cash prices tend to rally following harvest. Soybeans are currently still seen as a neutral, Type 3 market.
DAILY NOTE
November soybean futures closed at $10.31 3/4 on Monday, up 12 1/4 cents. January futures were up 13 1/4 cents to $10.50. The soybean complex moved higher for the fourth straight session on Monday on renewed trade optimism following reports of positive conversations between U.S. and Chinese officials on Saturday. The November contract as a result posted its highest close in just over a month, while closing back above both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. The trend in November soybeans is sideways for now.
RECOMMENDATIONS*
(10/20/2025)
2025-26:
Take advantage of a strong four day rally in soybean futures due to renewed trade optimism ahead of U.S. negotiations with China to sell another 15% of 2025-26 soybean production. November soybean futures were near $10.27 at the time of this recommendation, with the DTN National Soybean Index likely near $9.54, bringing net cash to approximately $9.35 for the sale. Recommendations are done under the assumption that roughly 50% of production cannot be stored on farm. This sale brings the 2025-26 cash total to 50% of production. Previous put protection will expire worthless on the remaining 25% hedged, for a total net cost across the original 50% hedge of approximately 18 1/4 cents.
(8/25/2025)
2025-26:
With the surprising cut to 2025 soybean acreage by the USDA in the August WASDE and subsequent rally in prices, consider rewarding the rally thus far with a 15% forward sale of 2025 soybean production. November soybeans are trading near $10.53 at the time of this recommendation. Simultaneously, unwind half of the previous put protection (representing 25% of production), with $9.80 November 2025 puts asking price near 3 5/8 cents, locking in a price of 16 3/8 cents for that previous hedge. Based on the DTN National Soybean Index, net cash for the sale should be near to $9.70 depending on fills.
(8/5/2025)
2025-26:
With November soybeans falling below $10.00 and the downside risk to the market growing due to poor demand from China as well as the potential for large yields, consider protecting an additional 50% of 2025 soybean production by purchasing $9.80 November 2025 soybean puts, currently bid near 20 cents per bushel. This will improve upon the floor offered by crop insurance currently, while also leaving the upside open to a rally should August and September weather prove detrimental to U.S. production.
(6/23/2025)
2025-26:
With November soybeans trading near 2025 highs last week but rapidly reversing off those highs, I recommend rewarding the markets rally off April lows thus far with a sale of the first 20% of new-crop soybeans. I remain cautiously optimistic regarding the soybean fundamental situation in 2025 and 2026; however, the seasonal tendency for prices to peak in summer cannot be ignored, as well as the potential for a bearish surprise in the June 30 acreage report, which further supports my belief that a sale here is appropriate. We will remain vigilant and prepared for a potential resumption of the rally to new 2025 highs. November soybean futures were near $10.55 at the time of this recommendation.
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*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.