DTN Soybean Meal Six Factors

TREND: The trend in December soybean meal is down for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial soybean meal traders held a net-short futures position of 48,915 contracts as of September 23, an increase of 4,307 contracts as meal traders turned to selling on the news that Argentina would lift their grain export tax.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial traders held a net-long position in soymeal futures of 36,600 contracts for the week ending September 23, the most recent CFTC report. December meal is priced $3.50 below the January contract, a spread which firmed through the week, possibly on a surge in demand. Cash meal prices in Illinois are below the nearby futures contract, a sign of steady supplies during soybean harvest.

SEASONAL INDEX: Soybean meal prices tend to peak in early July and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: In the most recent week, most active (December) soybean meal futures rose to the 6th percentile, a very inexpensive price location within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility in most active (December) meal futures remained at 4% after prices closed higher on the week.