DTN Soybean Six Factors

TREND: The trend for November soybeans is sideways for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial soybean traders held a net-long futures position of 5,748 contracts as of September 23, a decrease of 15,439 contracts as traders liquidated soybean length following what was deemed to be disappointing trade negotiations between President Trump and President Xi of China.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial soybean traders held a net-long position of 7,371 contracts as of September 23, the most recent CFTC report. The November to January soybean futures spread closed the week at 17 cents of carry, steady on the week. National average soybean basis firmed 2 cents over the past week, to 74 cents under the November board, still the fourth weakest of the past decade, but showing steady improvement through the month of October thus far.

SEASONAL INDEX: Soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom in early October.  

PRICE PROBABILITY: In the latest week, the most active (November) soybean futures contract rose to the 10th percentile, a very attractive price location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for front month (November) soybean futures held at 4% as prices finished higher on the week.