EIA: Higher China Crude Stockpiling Eased Global Glut

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) – China’s increase of around 900,000 bpd in crude stockpiling between January and August helped offset a global supply glut, keeping benchmark Brent bobbing at between $68 and $69 bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a review Thursday (10/9).

The agency estimated that world petroleum inventories rose by an average of 1.8 million bpd in the second and third quarters of 2025, as crude production from countries both within and outside OPEC+ outpaced global demand growth.

“The stock builds in China limited the downward price pressure we would otherwise expect to see with growing inventories, keeping the Brent crude oil spot prices in a relatively tight range around $68 per barrel in the second and third quarters of 2025,” the EIA said in the review posted on the “Today in Energy” column of its website.

The agency estimated that China’s stockpiling alone averaged 1.1 million bpd between April and August.  

“Similar levels of global inventory growth would typically put downward pressure on crude oil prices; however, the price of Brent increased slightly during this period,” the EIA noted.

It estimated total liquid fuels inventories in non-OECD countries, including China, grew by an average of 0.9 million bpd from January through August 2025.

But in those eight months, some 0.9 million bpd on the average was added to crude and condensate inventories in China alone, accounting for most of the estimated global inventory builds of 1.4 million bpd for January to August.

The EIA said it assessed the Chinese stockpiling based on imports, exports, refining, and oil inventory data from third-party and official sources, since China itself did not officially report its oil inventories.

“Although our estimates are based on limited information, they support the idea that inventory growth in China was not available for trade on the global market, supporting crude oil prices,” the EIA said.

The agency maintained its Brent price forecast published in its Short-Term Energy Outlook for October, citing an average of $52 bbl in the first quarter of 2026 versus the September average of $68.